Gustav a threat to LA

Hello everyone! Sorry I have not posted here in a while. Ok here is my update on Gustav, Hannah and other tropical tidbits out there!

Gustav: Now Hurricane Gustav is moving NW and is threatening the Cayman Islands, and will be threatening Cuba Tomorrow! Then a GOM movement is expected and I am very worried about intensity! I think this system will become a Cat 3 very easy, and maybe even become cat 4 or 5. As for the track: I expect Gustav to stay on a NW track for a while. I then expect this system to hit the GOM and explode. I expect this system to make landfall in central LA and then continue moving WNW to NW.

Hannah: I expect Hannah to continue to slowly strengthen and move WNW to NW. Then I expect a ridge to block it South and Send it back into South Florida or just South of Florida and maybe into the GOM. Ok, I will point this out as well, although I know you dont want to hear it. This system COULD become a major hurricane IF it makes it into the GOM.

97L: 97L is on its way to becoming a depression and will most likely become our third cyclone within the next 2 to three days. I expect a W to WNW movement for the next few days!

Zack

Hurricane Gustav to hit as Category 3 - 4 storm

~ Gustav is now a Category 1 Hurricane ~

The maps below illustrate the potential destruction that is to come. New Orleans residents are already beginning to evacuate. I expect this storm may reach Category 5 intensity somewhere in the wide-open gulf, but it WILL weaken before landfall. I expect it to hit the coast 75 - 200 miles west of New Orleans. Please stay tuned to the Tyler's Weather.com Blog.

TrakPath:
Close-Up Landfall:Potential Effects:Potential Effects:

Gustav extremely dangerous! Cat. 4-5 likely

Hi everyone! First, about the maps, I didn't use the HD ones because none of them really showed the whole area of my forecast. So, without further ado, here's the outlook for Gustav. I will have an update on Hanna tomorrow.

"Tropical Stormicane" Gustav is south of Jamaica and moving WSW. It probably was a hurricane and may still be, because of the center relocation to the south so it somehow missed hitting Jamaica directly. That being said, Gustav is over a bathtub of warm water and very low shear. It is expected to turn to the WNW and strengthen as it moves through the Yucatan Channel. My forecast calls for a more pronounced turn to the north due to the weakness in the ridge to the north, plus the steering current forecasts. The models are a little farther west.So here is the forecast for Gustav:

Hurricane Gustav - Potential Category 5 Gulf Coast Hit

Attention all blog readers:

Hurricane Gustav is rapidly growing in size and strength over the open waters near South Cuba. It will likely become a Major Hurricane; the first of the season, and may hit the Gulf Coast. New Orleans, Louisiana should keep a vivid eye on this beast. A high pressure system off of Florida will prevent Gustav from veering eastward - as originally predicted by some meteorologists. Below are some HD Graphics for your visual enjoyment:

TrakPath:
Hurricane Intensity Descriptions:

Severe Weather Season Completed

Based on latest forecasts, There are no scheduled Severe Thunderstorms for the area. I think we are done for Severe Weather until next year. With that, I Am going to switch to Regular Forecasting for now until I hear further from Chief Meteorologist Tyler with my assignment. Stay Tuned For Further Forecasts with Our Fall Forecast and Winter Forecast!
Until Next Time,


-Zach

Fay leaving, 94L a major threat, 95L something to watch, plus a 2-week forecast

So I haven't done a post in awhile. Well, I've been just about gone for a week for personal reasons. So I will continue to update daily or every 2 days. Moving on, however, here are my forecasts.

Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is moving inland and will continue to weaken, bringing lots of rain to the Southeast. Additional development is not expected.

94L: This is the one we need to watch. It is definitely improving on satellite this morning, with some nice outflow and some spinning. The TAFB T# is 1.5, good enough for a minimal TD. Shear is very low, SSTs are like a bathtub with lots of TCHP in the area, and the air is very moist because of a weaker tropical wave in front of 94L. That being said, my forecast calls for some nice strengthening over the next few days due to these favorable conditions. The only thing that might impede intensification is some land to the north, if it even makes it that far north. So here is my forecast map.

















95L: Invest 95L is slowly developing and moving WNW. I don't expect much from this, maybe a TS. The HWRF and CMC models are too bullish on the intensity IMO. But if some models are right, the East Coast might need to watch out down the road.

Other tropical news: Most models are predicting a new tropical wave to move off the coast sometime tomorrow or Tuesday. I expect this to become a TS or hurricane as it moves WNW to NW.

2-week tropical forecast: The MJO is upon us, with low shear and below-average SAL. I predict 94L and the future African wave to form, as well as one more named storm during the next two weeks. At least 2 of these will become hurricanes.


-Mitch

92L a major threat to the Southeast Coast, plus 93L and future 94L analysis

Hello everyone! Sorry I haven't written in a long time, I've been too busy with my high school sports. But putting that aside, I will give an analysis on 92L and the rest of the tropics.

92L: A recon plane is currently in 92L, looking for a closed circulation, and they're not finding one. So Fay probably will not be declared at 5 pm today. But it will most likely be declared in the next day. But right now, 92L is a vigorous tropical wave moving west with a nice mid-level circulation, which is coming down to the surface. Wind shear is very low, 5-15 knots, over the disturbance. The ocean heat potential is very high, meaning rapid intensification is not out of the question in the future.

Now for my track. I believe 92L will become a tropical storm very soon, maybe as soon as 11 pm tonight. I expect a slow intensification until 3 days from now. Then, BOOM! A period of steady intensification starts as future Fay starts to turn northwest, then northward. The forecast is very uncertain after the ending period of my track forecast.
















93L: Disturbance 93L is weak and will move westward over the next few days. Gradual development is possible.

Future 94L: A tropical wave has maintained lots of convection since exiting Africa. Models are showing a possible U.S. hit, so we better watch this as it has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend.


-Mitch

Tropical Update

Invest 92: This is looking pretty ragged at the moment. I do expect this system to become a depression by the 11 advisory however, and soon, this thing will rapidly intensify, as a major mjo pulse is soon to be over the Atlantic and 92L. As for track and intensity, I expect this system to track just N of the Leeward Islands, and into the Bahamas. As for intensity, I expect to see a cat 1 hurricane approaching Florida in 120 hours. Some models like GFDL predict a cat 4, I think this is way overdone.

Invest 93; 93 has changed little in organization the past 24 hours, and is looking pretty ragged, not until the major mjo pulse, will this become a depression. As for the track and intensity, I expect this system to remain a fish storm curving out to sea, with only Bermuda threatened. As for intensity, I think This system will be a cat 1 hurricane 120 hours out.

Hurricane Forecaster Zack

2008 Little League World Series

I will be traveling to Williamsport, PA later this week for the first game of the New England and Mid-Atlantic teams in the Little League World Series. These teams won the regional tournament here in Bristol, and I would like to watch them play at the world level. Here are the competitors and current standings:

Dominican Republic Forecast

One reader of the blog questioned on leaving for a vacation in the D.R. later this week and was worried about invest 92L. Here are the latest model runs for this storm. As you can see, maximum intensity should only be a strong category one at 120 hours out.







I would say that you should continue with your vacation plans. This storm should go north of the island. Lead Hurricane Forecaster Mitch will bring more information soon in an updated post.

Invest 92L

Invest 92L in my opinion will become a hurricane, maybe even a cat 2!! For now I will just give you my path but my full update is coming later.

August 10th Severe Weather

An upper level low spinning near the Great Lakes tomorrow will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over the area tomorrow afternoon, and some of those storms will be severe. The areas I think are at the greatest risk are Vermont and southern NJ/northeastern MD. These are the areas where the best dynamics for severe storms will set up (moderate CAPE and low LI). That being said, the risk is not all that high...only a slight risk through the region...though in southern NJ it is a 30% slight risk, which is one step below a moderate risk.

The main risk for tomorrow is going to be small hail and damaging straight-line winds. Some storms may feature large or even marginally severe hail due cold upper-level temps, but I do not think it will be widespread.

Here is the accompanying map:

Tropics about to heat up

Well folks, it's August. We're getting into the peak of hurricane season, and the latest model guidance supports that. There is not much to talk about, but I am watching 3 areas for development for next week. I will give a short discussion on each.

Future low off East Coast, 72-144 hours: Cool SSTs are the problem here. There is only a small window of development as it moves to the northeast due to a trough. I do not expect anything more than a tropical storm, if that.

Future Central Atlantic low: The CMC and UKMET develop this low and take it north of the islands. I see no reason why this should not form, but I am not giving an intensity or path forecast right now.

Future Cape Verde storm: I have been watching this one very closely. A vigorous wave is forecast to come off Africa tomorrow, and develop shortly thereafter. Literally everything is favorable for development for the long trek across the Atlantic, so I am predicting a hurricane from this. The track is very uncertain, though, as it could range anywhere from the 1938 Long Island Express to Hurricane Dean of 2007. It will almost certainly hit land somewhere because of a building ridge in the Atlantic.


-Mitch

Elsewhere, no development is expected over the next 5 days.

THIS JUST IN:Tornado Warning

The National Weather Service has allowed the Tornado Warning to Expire, Milford Police has been getting calls about a possible funnel, it will be investigated by Milford Police and I am sure the NWS Will Investigate as well. Updates will be Provided as we get them in.

Tropical Update August 5th

Hello everyone, Edouard has now made landfall, and I have discontinued tracking it.

All other Atlantic is quiet, with only a few waves that even have a chance to develop.

Invest 90L and 99L have both died.

Invest 90L I do believe will become Invest 92 once it reaches the Caribbean. It may even become a depression. This may become something to watch down the road, but at this time, any convection that returns with the wave dies.

No other waves need to be watched right now, although the tropics are soon to become very active. This is the time to prepare. I expect a two to three day break before the tropics light up. The gfs model shows a lot of development in the next 16 days, and this is why everyone needs to prepare now!

Sincerely,
Zack

Edouard making landfall

At 7 am CDT, T.S. Edouard was making landfall just north of Houston/Galveston. Its minimum pressure was 997 mb and the maximum winds were 65 mph. Flooding is a concern with Edouard.

As for the other invests I predicted would developed, I will admit I was wrong with those forecasts. 90L died a few days ago, and 99L died this morning.

My August forecast looks good, with the long-range GFS developing everything coming off Africa. However, the East Coast should be spared this month due to persistent troughs coming across the eastern U.S. The Gulf Coast and Mexico is now at risk. People on the East Coast should still watch, though.

And for non-tropical news, a derecho passed through Chicago last night. A tornado formed on the north side of town last night, and other areas not affected had wind gusts as high as 94 mph.


-Mitch

Invest 91L update

We have something very important to talk about today. Invest 91L. Invest 91L is expected to become a TD by the 5:00 advisory. I even expect this system to become a hurricane before landfall. Any landfalling tropical storm or hurricane has to be taken seriously, and that is what everyone should be doing. This system's track has been adjusted north, so all interests from Lake Charles to Brownsville Texas should monitor this system very closely.

My full update will be online soon.

Sincerely,

Zack

Tropical update August 2nd

Hello everyone, the tropics are starting to become very active, and we have a good bit of stuff to talk about. We have three invests in the Atlantic, two of which have a good chance to affect the US coast. The other one even has about a 30 percent chance. Invest 90L is the most concern at the moment, why? Because it is right off the Alabama coast moving W. This system is expected to turn on a more NorthWest track. Where is it going? We think SouthEastern Texas is a good bet. I believe this system will become a strong tropical storm before landfall. 55 to 70 mph. Invest 90L is the second most concern, it is over warm waters, low shear, and pretty much everything else is working with it. This system is moving west and is almost halfway between CV islands and Leeward Islands. I predict this system will move into the Caribbean, and eventually affect Jamaica. I also expect this system to become a hurricane. Invest 99L is a concern, but has a relatively small chance of landfall in the US. I predict this will move just north of the Leewards, and then curve to the NW. However, SC and NC should monitor this system, as well as Bermuda, as I predict this system will eventually become a strong tropical storm.
Sincerely,
Zack

Invest 90L 91L and 99L

We have a lot to talk about today, and it is only August 2nd, this is not a good sign, we enjoyed the relatively small quiet period, and now we have three systems to watch in the Atlantic basin. Not only that, but two of them have a good chance to affect the US coast, The other one even has a small chance of affecting the East coast. Now lets talk about each one of them.

Invest 90L: This became an invest early this morning, my path and intensity prediction are both interesting, this system is expected to head towards the leewards, and eventually, jamaica and Cuba may have to watch this, and eventually, even the Gulf Coast may have to watch this, as for intensity, at the end of the long range track, I expect it to be a strong category 1. This system is the only invest in the atlantic that is expected to become a hurricane within 7 days.

Invest 91L: This became an invest only a few hours ago, and is the most concern at this time. The reason is it's proximity to the Gulf Coast, It is right off the Coast of the Florida Panhandle, and is moving WNW. My track and intensity call for this to become a pretty strong tropical storm, and for it to track into Southern and Eastern Texas. All interests fro Houston to Brownsville should monitor the progress of 91L.

Invest 99L: At this time, this one is of the least concern, it is also the strongest of the three at this point, however, conditions are not as favorable for development as they are with the other two. My forecast track and intensity for this invest is a little less concerning, I expect it to become a strong tropical storm within 7 days, And track WNW then on a more NW track, This invest may become a threat to the East Coast, But at this time, we believe this system will remain, mainly a marine interest.

My full update will be coming later.

Sincerely,

Zack

99L intensifying, 90L forms, 91L coming? Plus my August forecast.

We have A LOT to talk about today in the tropics, as they are really heating up. We have 2 invests, plus a near-invest, and I'll talk about my August tropical forecast.

99L: Invest 99L has regained a lot of its convection due to diurnal max. It is in a moister environment with low wind shear, and it still has a well-defined surface low pressure center. Its T# is 1.5, enough for a weak T.D., but the NHC wants to see if it keeps the convection through the day. If it does, then expect a T.D. to be declared at 11:00 pm tonight. If it doesn't, then expect the NHC to play this system conservative until they're certain it can maintain its convection.
My forecast for 99L calls for it to be an invest for a little longer, then gradually strengthen into a nice tropical storm. The track is hard to forecast because a trough is coming down in a few days. Half the models take it out to sea, the other half point it towards the East Coast. Right now my cone offers both options, with the latter being the more likely for now.
















90L: Our new invest does not have a low-level circulation yet, but I expect it to gain one soon due to the favorable conditions surrounding it. Convection has held up very nicely since Thursday, and that is not very typical for a wave this far off Africa this early in the season. The factor that may inhibit 90L from getting the low-level circulation is a surge of African dust coming off the coast right now. This why I keep it an invest for a few more days. But after that, it's go time. Expect moderate intensification from 90L due to very favorable conditions at it approaches the Caribbean. My forecast even has it as a category 1 hurricane in 5 days. The islands really must watch this for further intensification as it continues to move WNW.

















Future 91L: A low pressure system is emerging into the bathtub known as the Gulf of Mexico. This thing is a sleeping giant in my opinion and will surprise everyone. The GFS develops this and takes it towards TX/LA. I predict this to strengthen into a tropical storm, a little stronger than Erin was when she made landfall in Texas last year. Everything is favorable, the proximity to land will limit development into a hurricane.

My August forecast: Well, August has gotten off to a busy start, with 2 invests strengthening, and another system about to become an invest. This action is all coming with a downward pulse of the MJO, which is not extremely favorable for development. But just about everything else is going our way - low wind shear, high SSTs, low surface pressures, etc. When we get into an upward phase of the MJO, in about 1 1/2 weeks, watch the action in the Atlantic crank up big-time. The African wave train looks to be getting very active as indicated by the long-range GFS, and that is likely with the new MJO phase. A 2005-like August is certainly not out of the question.
The biggest land threats in August are the Southeast states and northern islands, with the Bermuda High building more westward.

So here is my forecast for August:
6 named storms
3 hurricanes
1 major hurricane (landfall likely)


-Mitch

Updated path and intensity

I now have the hd maps. Here is the path of 99L

Tropical update August 1st

Hello everyone, 99L still appears to be nothing to worry about at this point, however,as you can see from my projected path, I do expect it to begin to organize later. This system may affect Florida several days from now, and then we can become more concerned about it. I am still monitoring the front soon to enter the Gulf of Mexico, This system should emerge over waters tomorrow, and it could develop into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm, all interests in Texas and Louisiana should monitor this front closely. If this system emerges into the GOM tomorrow and begins to become better organized, then I will have a path and intensity prediction. Sorry I did not post the path with the hd image, I am having a few problems, these problems should be resolved later tonight or tomorrow.

Sincerely,

Zack

Invest 99L Nothing to worry about

My opinion is, NHC should not give this a medium risk for development, It should not be classified as an invest, and it is not anything to worry about. It is in favorable conditions, but what lies only a few hundred miles in front of it is dry air and dust. I do believe this system may have a chance to develop 3 to 5 days from now, but nothing to worry about in the short term. I am still monitoring the cold front soon to enter the GOMEX. At this time, no models forecast significant development, but we will have to monitor it over the next 3 to 4 days. My full update and my projected path and intensity for 99L will be coming later today.