Fay leaving, 94L a major threat, 95L something to watch, plus a 2-week forecast

So I haven't done a post in awhile. Well, I've been just about gone for a week for personal reasons. So I will continue to update daily or every 2 days. Moving on, however, here are my forecasts.

Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is moving inland and will continue to weaken, bringing lots of rain to the Southeast. Additional development is not expected.

94L: This is the one we need to watch. It is definitely improving on satellite this morning, with some nice outflow and some spinning. The TAFB T# is 1.5, good enough for a minimal TD. Shear is very low, SSTs are like a bathtub with lots of TCHP in the area, and the air is very moist because of a weaker tropical wave in front of 94L. That being said, my forecast calls for some nice strengthening over the next few days due to these favorable conditions. The only thing that might impede intensification is some land to the north, if it even makes it that far north. So here is my forecast map.

















95L: Invest 95L is slowly developing and moving WNW. I don't expect much from this, maybe a TS. The HWRF and CMC models are too bullish on the intensity IMO. But if some models are right, the East Coast might need to watch out down the road.

Other tropical news: Most models are predicting a new tropical wave to move off the coast sometime tomorrow or Tuesday. I expect this to become a TS or hurricane as it moves WNW to NW.

2-week tropical forecast: The MJO is upon us, with low shear and below-average SAL. I predict 94L and the future African wave to form, as well as one more named storm during the next two weeks. At least 2 of these will become hurricanes.


-Mitch