August 10th Severe Weather

An upper level low spinning near the Great Lakes tomorrow will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over the area tomorrow afternoon, and some of those storms will be severe. The areas I think are at the greatest risk are Vermont and southern NJ/northeastern MD. These are the areas where the best dynamics for severe storms will set up (moderate CAPE and low LI). That being said, the risk is not all that high...only a slight risk through the region...though in southern NJ it is a 30% slight risk, which is one step below a moderate risk.

The main risk for tomorrow is going to be small hail and damaging straight-line winds. Some storms may feature large or even marginally severe hail due cold upper-level temps, but I do not think it will be widespread.

Here is the accompanying map: