Tropical update August 2nd

Hello everyone, the tropics are starting to become very active, and we have a good bit of stuff to talk about. We have three invests in the Atlantic, two of which have a good chance to affect the US coast. The other one even has about a 30 percent chance. Invest 90L is the most concern at the moment, why? Because it is right off the Alabama coast moving W. This system is expected to turn on a more NorthWest track. Where is it going? We think SouthEastern Texas is a good bet. I believe this system will become a strong tropical storm before landfall. 55 to 70 mph. Invest 90L is the second most concern, it is over warm waters, low shear, and pretty much everything else is working with it. This system is moving west and is almost halfway between CV islands and Leeward Islands. I predict this system will move into the Caribbean, and eventually affect Jamaica. I also expect this system to become a hurricane. Invest 99L is a concern, but has a relatively small chance of landfall in the US. I predict this will move just north of the Leewards, and then curve to the NW. However, SC and NC should monitor this system, as well as Bermuda, as I predict this system will eventually become a strong tropical storm.
Sincerely,
Zack

Invest 90L 91L and 99L

We have a lot to talk about today, and it is only August 2nd, this is not a good sign, we enjoyed the relatively small quiet period, and now we have three systems to watch in the Atlantic basin. Not only that, but two of them have a good chance to affect the US coast, The other one even has a small chance of affecting the East coast. Now lets talk about each one of them.

Invest 90L: This became an invest early this morning, my path and intensity prediction are both interesting, this system is expected to head towards the leewards, and eventually, jamaica and Cuba may have to watch this, and eventually, even the Gulf Coast may have to watch this, as for intensity, at the end of the long range track, I expect it to be a strong category 1. This system is the only invest in the atlantic that is expected to become a hurricane within 7 days.

Invest 91L: This became an invest only a few hours ago, and is the most concern at this time. The reason is it's proximity to the Gulf Coast, It is right off the Coast of the Florida Panhandle, and is moving WNW. My track and intensity call for this to become a pretty strong tropical storm, and for it to track into Southern and Eastern Texas. All interests fro Houston to Brownsville should monitor the progress of 91L.

Invest 99L: At this time, this one is of the least concern, it is also the strongest of the three at this point, however, conditions are not as favorable for development as they are with the other two. My forecast track and intensity for this invest is a little less concerning, I expect it to become a strong tropical storm within 7 days, And track WNW then on a more NW track, This invest may become a threat to the East Coast, But at this time, we believe this system will remain, mainly a marine interest.

My full update will be coming later.

Sincerely,

Zack

99L intensifying, 90L forms, 91L coming? Plus my August forecast.

We have A LOT to talk about today in the tropics, as they are really heating up. We have 2 invests, plus a near-invest, and I'll talk about my August tropical forecast.

99L: Invest 99L has regained a lot of its convection due to diurnal max. It is in a moister environment with low wind shear, and it still has a well-defined surface low pressure center. Its T# is 1.5, enough for a weak T.D., but the NHC wants to see if it keeps the convection through the day. If it does, then expect a T.D. to be declared at 11:00 pm tonight. If it doesn't, then expect the NHC to play this system conservative until they're certain it can maintain its convection.
My forecast for 99L calls for it to be an invest for a little longer, then gradually strengthen into a nice tropical storm. The track is hard to forecast because a trough is coming down in a few days. Half the models take it out to sea, the other half point it towards the East Coast. Right now my cone offers both options, with the latter being the more likely for now.
















90L: Our new invest does not have a low-level circulation yet, but I expect it to gain one soon due to the favorable conditions surrounding it. Convection has held up very nicely since Thursday, and that is not very typical for a wave this far off Africa this early in the season. The factor that may inhibit 90L from getting the low-level circulation is a surge of African dust coming off the coast right now. This why I keep it an invest for a few more days. But after that, it's go time. Expect moderate intensification from 90L due to very favorable conditions at it approaches the Caribbean. My forecast even has it as a category 1 hurricane in 5 days. The islands really must watch this for further intensification as it continues to move WNW.

















Future 91L: A low pressure system is emerging into the bathtub known as the Gulf of Mexico. This thing is a sleeping giant in my opinion and will surprise everyone. The GFS develops this and takes it towards TX/LA. I predict this to strengthen into a tropical storm, a little stronger than Erin was when she made landfall in Texas last year. Everything is favorable, the proximity to land will limit development into a hurricane.

My August forecast: Well, August has gotten off to a busy start, with 2 invests strengthening, and another system about to become an invest. This action is all coming with a downward pulse of the MJO, which is not extremely favorable for development. But just about everything else is going our way - low wind shear, high SSTs, low surface pressures, etc. When we get into an upward phase of the MJO, in about 1 1/2 weeks, watch the action in the Atlantic crank up big-time. The African wave train looks to be getting very active as indicated by the long-range GFS, and that is likely with the new MJO phase. A 2005-like August is certainly not out of the question.
The biggest land threats in August are the Southeast states and northern islands, with the Bermuda High building more westward.

So here is my forecast for August:
6 named storms
3 hurricanes
1 major hurricane (landfall likely)


-Mitch