Forecast Discussion Update

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 00z SUN. 2/2/09

*MINOR EVENT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONSISTENCY /WESTWARD TREND/ OF THE 00Z NAM OR GFS TONIGHT BEFORE A SNOW MAP IS ISSUED.

ECMWF HAS A SNOWSTORM TRACK WITH PLOWABLE SNOW /3"+/ IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL STICK WITH ORIGINAL FORECAST FROM SATURDAY OF 2"-4". THIS WOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING OF TUESDAY.

TWFD Update

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 17z SUN. 2/1/09

*WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

12z ECMWF COMING OUT SOON. IF WE HAVE CONSISTENCY, A SNOW MAP WILL BE ISSUED BY 19Z 2/1/09.

Tyler's Weather Forecast Discussion

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 17z SUN. 2/1/09

*WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

A ROLLER COASTER SET OF MODELS HAVE BEEN REVIEWED AND NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. BASIC QPF TOTALS WERE DERIVED FROM THE 09Z SREF /WHICH CONTINUES THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IDEA/ AND FROM FUTURECAST. EARLY CALCULATIONS SHOW 4"-8" OF SNOW FOR THE SNE AREA. THINKING THIS WILL BE NEAR A .5" QPF EVENT, BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE FOR THE LOWER OR HIGHER DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK. ECMWF CONTINUES IT'S STAGNANT FAR EAST TRACK, BUT 00Z RUN HAS BAGGY ISOBARS OFF THE COAST. POSSIBLY TRIES TO DEVELOP THE SECONDARY AS SIMILARLY ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM RUNS. WILL STICK TO 06Z NAM FOR TRACK. GFS HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM RUN-TO-RUN, SO HAS BEEN SET ASIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

12Z MODEL RUN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE DELMARVA COAST. HOWEVER, 12Z GFS OP RUN BRINGS THE LOW OTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE GFS HAS BEEN SET ASIDE DUE TO ITS INCONSISTENCIES.

INTERNATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE OFF SHORE CAMP. DUE TO THEIR LOW RESOLUTION AND 24HR INTERVALS, WE CANNOT MAKE ACCURATE ASSUMPTIONS AS TO THE SECONDARY LOW.

WILL STICK TO 06Z NAM FOR TRACK AND 09Z SREF/FUTURECAST FOR THE QPF TOTALS. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MORE RUNS WILL COME IN, NOTABLY THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WATCH FOR ANY TRENDS, AND MAY ALTER FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE UPCOMING CRITICAL RUNS.