So Hurricane Dolly has moved inland, but is still packing a punch. The eye is still well-defined as it moves towards the Mexican border. Also, some areas near South Padre island have gotten 20 inches of rain! Doppler radar even shows some isolated 25+ inch amounts! The average for southern Texas, though, is around 5 inches from Dolly. As for the Tyler's Weather Official Forecast, the intensity was dead on from the start, and the track wasn't off by more than 30 miles with either cone. We performed quite well with this storm here at Tyler's Weather.
97L is very weak and is managing to fire a few thunderstorms every once in a while. Look for it to stay weak and curve out to sea next week.
The GFS and CMC are predicting that the next tropical wave to come off Africa tomorrow will become our next tropical depression. I see a good chance of developing with this, as it will be moving over much warmer waters than 97L is right now.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Dolly inland, 97L weak, GFS/CMC tropical threat?
9:30PM UPDATE
Starting Off This Evening, The Severe Thunderstorm Watch Goes to 10PM and May be extended, more on that below. Also A Flood Warning For Litchfield County as been issued until 3Am.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued the latest Mesoscale Discussion, And it is Below
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NY MA CT RI NJ PA MD DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240126Z - 240230Z
A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. COORDINATION ON A PROPOSED
WATCH WILL OCCUR SHORTLY.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE DELMARVA NWD ACROSS THE NYC/BOS METRO AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO TAKE ON NEGATIVE
TILT...SPREADS EAST...AND MAINTAINS ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT...SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS MAY OCCASIONALLY
EMERGE FROM THE GENERALLY SW-NE BAND OF INTENSE FRONTAL CONVECTION
NOW ESTABLISHED ALONG MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD.
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY...TIME OF DAY MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A LIMITING
FACTOR TO PRECLUDE ANOTHER SEVERE TSTM WATCH BEING NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA AND WATCH COORDINATION WILL COMMENCE SHORTLY.
..CARBIN.. 07/24/2008
Main rounds coming tonight/tomorrow
So far today all the action has been kept over eastern NY state. Widespread 2 inch plus amounts have been reported with upwards of 6 inches! The area of rain is moving towards the NNE and only has a small component in the direction of SNE. As for severe weather in that area, a severe thunderstorm watch was issued by the SPC earlier today covering all of CT, RI, S MA, E NY, down into NJ, and W PA, but so far thunderstorms have remained below severe limits. This is mainly due to a lack of any low level instability.
Across Connecticut, depending on where you were, you may have even scored a little bit of sun shine today. Further east, E CT into RI and SE MA were alone as the unexpected exclusive receivers of severe weather from one very intense cell that plowed through. North of the Mass Pike, skies were overcast all day long, but with generally under an inch of rainfall.
Tonight, the area of rain in E NY right now will slowly shift into western New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible mainly north of the Mass Pike. South of the pike it is questionable where the southern edge of the rain shield will lie.
In terms of severe weather tonight, the watch over SNE remains in effect until 10pm. Radar in New York City and Philadelphia show scattered thunderstorms with cores up to 60dBZ so cant rule out some signficant boomers through midnight. These storms arent working off of instability so much as they are triggered by overrunning warm moist air and sustained with the high levels of shear. These features will remain with us through tonight and tomorrow, so there is no reason for convection to wane. Considering the high shear levels, the threat for an isolated tornado still exists.
Short range models indicate a break in the rain early tomorrow morning, before the main event comes in. This will be a plume of heavy rainfall that will train over the region through tomorrow evening. The rain should reach the south coast by 2am EDT, extending up to N MA by 6am. Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches will be possible in western New England with lesser amounts as you go east. The NAM is indicating locally up to 10 inches across parts of W MA, VT, and SW NH while the GFS shows up to 5 inches.
Heavy Rain Wednesday - Thursday
NAM Total Precipitation:
GFS Total Precipitation:
Severe Weather Potential:
Tyler's Weather Official Rainfall Forecast:
COMING SOON!
11AM UPDATE:Regarding Severe Potential
Good Morning Everyone,
I still see by late afternoon and getting into early evening that storms will be firing up, with that it will bring supercell thunderstorms,Very Gusty Winds, Large Hail, And Very Heavy Rains. I Do see the possibility of a Tornado Watch Being Issued By the Storm Prediction Center later this afternoon as the storms start to fire up. Updates will be issued as conditions warrant.
East Coast Severe 7/23 update
Not changing much from my original forecast. Sun is shining through the clouds throughout much of the area which should provide ample instability. I'm going to up tornado probs to 10% in the corridor from Philadelphia to Mass. The backing of winds is looking really potent and we could see a possible tornado outbreak inside the moderate risk. Winds and Hail probs remain the same. Look for supercells developing in the afternoon hours then becoming more linear by evening bringing high wind. Still a high bust potential with system though becasue of all the clouds. I will not be surprised if today isn't as bad as I'm prediciting.
Dolly approaching the coast, rapidly intensifying
Hurricane Dolly is slowing and possibly stalling, while it is also undergoing rapid intensification. Dolly, as of 8 am, has winds of 95 mph (high-end cat. 1) and a pressure of 978 mb. However, recon just found a pressure of 961 mb near the eye of Dolly. I predict Dolly will make landfall late this afternoon near or just north of South Padre Island as an intensifying cat. 2 hurricane.
Update on 97L coming this afternooon.
-Mitch
Tornado outlook for SNE 7/23
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon as mid level boundaries interact with abundant low level moisture. Anywhere that is able to scrape a second or two of sunshine today should watch out because any sunshine will contribute to instability which just a small amount of will be needed to fuel severe weather today. Jet dynamics are excellent, providing strong divergence aloft and contributing to over 45kts of shear. This will assist in multiple clusters of storms with damaging winds. In addition, the tornado threat will be high especially across SE NY and into western New England. Latest run of the SREF indicates CAPE around 2000J/kg in E PA and W NJ but dropping off quickly into New England. This will really be the main limiting factor as low level lapse rates will only be marginal for severe weather without any solar heating today. Mid level lapse rates will be increasing thoughout the day however, and this evening will likely feature an incredible severe weather preformance of multiple bows and supercells.
In addition to the tornado threat, training of thunderstorms will create significant flooding problems in any areas where this occurs. The heavy rain threat will continue through tomorrow, and the danger of flooding will be discussed later.
Inland tornado threat with Dolly
Hurricane Dolly is now very near the Coast of Southern Texas and Mexico. With Dolly, there is a tornado threat. Brownsville Texas has already seen a tornado warning. Along with wind and Tornado threats, Flooding rain is also a concern. Heavy rain bands are already beginning to come in Texas and Mexico, and it is going to be a very rough night for some.
Sincerely,
Zack