92L a major threat to the Southeast Coast, plus 93L and future 94L analysis

Hello everyone! Sorry I haven't written in a long time, I've been too busy with my high school sports. But putting that aside, I will give an analysis on 92L and the rest of the tropics.

92L: A recon plane is currently in 92L, looking for a closed circulation, and they're not finding one. So Fay probably will not be declared at 5 pm today. But it will most likely be declared in the next day. But right now, 92L is a vigorous tropical wave moving west with a nice mid-level circulation, which is coming down to the surface. Wind shear is very low, 5-15 knots, over the disturbance. The ocean heat potential is very high, meaning rapid intensification is not out of the question in the future.

Now for my track. I believe 92L will become a tropical storm very soon, maybe as soon as 11 pm tonight. I expect a slow intensification until 3 days from now. Then, BOOM! A period of steady intensification starts as future Fay starts to turn northwest, then northward. The forecast is very uncertain after the ending period of my track forecast.
















93L: Disturbance 93L is weak and will move westward over the next few days. Gradual development is possible.

Future 94L: A tropical wave has maintained lots of convection since exiting Africa. Models are showing a possible U.S. hit, so we better watch this as it has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend.


-Mitch