Severe Weather Outlook for the NE-M/A states 7/23

A front currently located in W PA will move toward the coast bringing with it a slight chance of thunderstorms for CT, W and C MA, S VT, C PA, and most of Virginia. A Moderate risk of thunderstorms will be located in E PA, MD, W NJ, and S NY. CAPE forecast from the 12z NAM suggests 2000-2500 J/Kg in SE PA down through Virginia which is more than sufficent instability. Elsewhere CAPE is commonly 1000-2000 J/Kg. Deep LI's commonly -4 to -6 are found in all area's inside the slight and moderate risks with the highest levels in E PA, MD, and NJ. Moisture is also abundant with this system with dew points in the upper 60's, low 70's. This and good LL lapse rates indicate that storms should have no problem firing tommorow and become severe. The biggest thing tommorow though is backed winds in the moderate risk zone. This is typically seen in severe outbreaks in the midwest. It is for this reason I am going 5% tornado probability inside the moderate risk as well as 2 % in the slight risk. A 40% wind probability is included in the moderate risk and 20% in the slight risk. Finally Hail probabilities will be 15% in all zones. A word of caution: Other models suggest possible cloud cover inside area's of the Moderate Risk. If this happens, most of the instability number will go down and may decrease the risk of Severe thunderstorms inside the risk zones. My next update is expected around 14z tommorow.

--Justin- Lead Severe Forecaster 03z Update

Dolly now a hurricane!

The NHC now says Dolly is a hurricane! Hurricane warnings have been issued in Southern Texas, and TS warnings have been issued North and South of that. Stay tuned for updates.
Sincerely,
Zack

Possible Moderate Risk Tomorrow

I have been alerted by several people at the SPC; we could be dealing with a Moderate Risk for SEVERE WEATHER tomorrow for the Local Region. I feel that CAPE will be nearing 4500 and it is known that supercells flourish in those types of enviornments. I do feel that a tornado watch may need to be issued - all depending on how things pans out tomorrow.

Also, on top of that, there is the possibility of Flooding and 2"-3" inches of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Accumulation maps will be issued soon by Chief Student Meteorologist Tyler. More updates will be issued as conditions warrant.

Dolly taking a jog to the North?

Hello everyone, Tropical Storm Dolly appears to be taking a jog to the NNW. As you know, sometimes, when a storm strengthens significantly, they can be pulled Northward. Due to the fact that this system is strengthening rapidly, My track has been adjusted North Considerably. All interests from Corpus Cristi to Brownsville Texas should continue to closely monitor this system.
Sincerely
Zack

12PM Dolly Satellite Update

Hello everyone! My name is Zack Cooper, And Tyler has allowed me to post on his blog. I will give my opinion on the tropics, as well as Hurricane expert Mitch. Tropical storm Dolly is very close to becoming a hurricane. Hurricane Warnings have been issued For South Texas. This means that Hurricane conditions are likely in the next 24 to 36 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are to the North and South of The Hurricane warnings. My projected path of the storm is posted above.
Sincerely,
Zack

Dolly Nearly a Hurricane; Bye-Bye Cristobal, 97L forms!

Lots to talk about in the tropics today. And think - it's only July. Just imagine what September will be like.

DOLLY: Tropical Storm Dolly's centers became vertically stacked last night, and therefore the storm is intensifying. The 11 am NHC advisory had Dolly at 70 mph, and moving northwest at 12 mph. That's a lot slower than yesterday, so Dolly is slowing down a little. That gives it more time to intensify. Dry air and the upper-level low are no longer problems with Dolly, as they are nowhere to be seen on water vapor imagery. Shear is low and water temperatures are high. Everything looks good for intensification. I have lowered my intensity forecast a little, and pushed the track a bit farther south based on the steering, satellite analysis, and model forecasts.

CRISTOBAL: Tropical Storm Cristobal is racing off to the northeast, and has winds of 65 mph. It is expected to weaken as it passes near Canada.

97L: We have a new invest! A new African wave has just come off the African coast at 18N. It has to endure the cool waters that Bertha passed through while moving west-northwest over the next few days. I predict that we have T.D. 5 by Thursday night.