Tropics quiet

Invest 98L has dissipated. No other areas in the Atlantic look that impressive, we are finally getting a break from the action, and it is expected to last the next few days. The reason we are not seeing any development, lies in Dust and Dry air, any wave that emerges off the coast of Africa, has a very rough go of it. However, the one area that concerns me is over the US at this point. We are monitoring a front making it pretty far South and the front is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico in a few days. Any summertime fronts that make it into the GOMEX have a chance to develop... Although it is pretty far fetched, we will have to monitor this front over the next 3 to 6 days.
Sincerely,
Zack

98L dissipating

98L has lost most of its convection due to moving northwest into cooler water and dry air. No development is expected elsewhere in the next 5 days.

Invest 98L Forms

Off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L has formed. It is currently a strengthening 1008-mb low pressure system with a T# of 1.0. The T# for T.D. status is either 1.5 or 2.0, depending on what the NHC thinks. Anyway, 98L has increased in convection during the day, and I was impressed to see it flare up during diurnal min. Wind shear is around 10-20 knots with 98L, which is pretty good to allow some development.

My forecast calls for 98L to slowly strengthen and move west to west-northwest due to the building ridge the models are showing. Low wind shear and somewhat moist air should aid in some development over the next few days.

Tropical update July 29th

Hello everyone. We are still monitoring one area of low pressure off the coast of Africa, that is showing signs of development, and in the next several days, we will have to watch this wave over the next five days, but it is still too far out to worry about at all at this point, not to mention it is still not a depression or even an investigation area. Thats a look at the tropics, the rest of the Atlantic remains quiet.
Sincerely,
Zack

Heat Blasts Mid-Atlantic, Heads Northeastward

This week, the Mid-Atlantic will be sweltering in 100-degree heat. Most other areas will reach the 90's. Towards the latter half of the weekend to the North, Bristol will be invaded by the heat. I will be working at the Little League Tournament, so other forecasters will keep you informed. Below is an HD graphic that illustrates the heat that will enter the region:

Tropical update July 28th

Hello everybody. Sorry I have not been around for a while. It is time for a look at the tropics. We are monitoring one area of low pressure off the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi, but because of it's proximity to land, no significant development of this system is expected. We are also monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa, that is showing signs of development, and we will have to monitor it over the next several days. However, it is too far out to lose any sleep over right now.
Sincerely,
Zack

Monday Forecast

On Monday, it looks like most storms will stay away to our North. Just expect partly cloudy skies and comfortable temperatures.

Monday Graphic:

Severe Weather outbreak for East Coast 7/27

Whoa today totally caught me off gaurd. I don't have time for a map for today so I apologize for that but here are my thoughts: deep instability, good lapse rates and decent shear will allow for storms to develop and become severe in particular the 1-95 corridor. A severe thunderstorm watch was just issued for SE PA, Maryland and NJ so the threat is just beggining. Main threats are large hail(hail parameters look good today) and wind with the shear in place. Another thing I have noticed that these shortwave events tend to be more severe than regular cold fronts so if today becomes one of the more severe days this year it will not surprise me. I'll try and get a update in later.
--15:30 UTC

Sunday Forecast

Sunday will have to potential to produce some hefty storms later this afternoon. Keep an eye on the sky!

8AM: Sunday's Severe Potential

What a nasty morning just occured; we had Severe Thunderstorms roll into the area at 3:30AM
and with it, it brought LOUD thunder, and very frequent lightning.

Today is also A "Slight Risk"

- For Severe Thunderstorms with main threats being Large Hail, Destructive Winds (70MPH or Greater) and 1 or 2 isolated tornado reports. Lead Severe Forecaster Justin Will Have more on this situation later on. Updates will be issued as conditions warrant!

Saturday's Fine Forecast

Saturday will be a nice day for outdoor activities!

Rhode Island Tornado

Today the National Weather Service confirmed that the waterspout seen off Narragansett Bay in Rhode Island yesterday did come ashore and did remain a tornado. The tornado, which went through Warren, RI and Swansea, MA, was an EF1 tornado with winds in the 65-75 mph range. The majority of the damage done by this tornado was downed trees and power lines, some of which fell onto area homes, and no injuries were reported. The cell was shown to have a Tornado Vortex Signature at least twice on radar yesterday, as well as radar-indicated hail of over 2''. Today, a potential tornado touched down in New Hampshire, but that has not been confirmed by the NWS yet.

Here is a photo of the waterspout, taken by a Rhode Island firefighter

JUST IN: Tornado Watch For Maine

The Storm Prediction Center Has just Issued a Tornado Watch for

• Large Part of Maine
• Coastal Waters

The Following is from The Storm Prediction Center and The Tornado Watch Will expire at 7PM Tonight.

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
 TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 745
 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
 100 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
 TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

        A LARGE PART OF MAINE
        COASTAL WATERS

 EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
 700 PM EDT.

 TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
 TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

 THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
 MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
 PORTLAND MAINE TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BANGOR MAINE.  FOR
 A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
 OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

 REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
 TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
 AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
 THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
 AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

 OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 744...

 DISCUSSION...N/S LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
 SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN ME.  STRONG SHEAR AND MLCAPES AOA 1000
 J/KG WITH 70F DEWPOINTS ONSHORE WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES WITH ANY
 SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE LINE.

 AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
 SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
 GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18035.

Yesterday's Storm Reports

Yesterday's outbreak wasn't as bad as forecasted due to cloud cover that did not burn off in area's that had the best dynamics. We saw that storms developed and some rotated but the lack of instability hurt in maintaining these supercells.

11AM: Regarding Thursday's Severe Potential

Today, The Storm Prediction Center has us in a Slight Risk for severe storms. I expect the areas that did not get the severe storms yesterday to get them today. The Main Risks today will be large hail and Damaging Winds And an Isolated Tornado is possible. Updates will be issued as conditions warrant.

Dolly inland and weaker, 97L update, and new hype!

Hurricane Dolly, now a tropical storm has moved well inland, right now, the storm contains winds of 50 mph, and it still is dropping a lot of rain. Many forecasters are dropping Invest 97L, And development of this system is not expected. A new tropical low/wave has emerged off the coast of Africa, and we will have to monitor it for possible future development.

Sincerely,
Zack

Dolly inland, 97L weak, GFS/CMC tropical threat?

So Hurricane Dolly has moved inland, but is still packing a punch. The eye is still well-defined as it moves towards the Mexican border. Also, some areas near South Padre island have gotten 20 inches of rain! Doppler radar even shows some isolated 25+ inch amounts! The average for southern Texas, though, is around 5 inches from Dolly. As for the Tyler's Weather Official Forecast, the intensity was dead on from the start, and the track wasn't off by more than 30 miles with either cone. We performed quite well with this storm here at Tyler's Weather.

97L is very weak and is managing to fire a few thunderstorms every once in a while. Look for it to stay weak and curve out to sea next week.

The GFS and CMC are predicting that the next tropical wave to come off Africa tomorrow will become our next tropical depression. I see a good chance of developing with this, as it will be moving over much warmer waters than 97L is right now.

9:30PM UPDATE

Starting Off This Evening, The Severe Thunderstorm Watch Goes to 10PM and May be extended, more on that below. Also A Flood Warning For Litchfield County as been issued until 3Am.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued the latest Mesoscale Discussion, And it is Below




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887

 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NY MA CT RI NJ PA MD DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240126Z - 240230Z

A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. COORDINATION ON A PROPOSED
WATCH WILL OCCUR SHORTLY.

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE DELMARVA NWD ACROSS THE NYC/BOS METRO AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO TAKE ON NEGATIVE
TILT...SPREADS EAST...AND MAINTAINS ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT...SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS MAY OCCASIONALLY
EMERGE FROM THE GENERALLY SW-NE BAND OF INTENSE FRONTAL CONVECTION
NOW ESTABLISHED ALONG MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD.
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY...TIME OF DAY MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A LIMITING
FACTOR TO PRECLUDE ANOTHER SEVERE TSTM WATCH BEING NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA AND WATCH COORDINATION WILL COMMENCE SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 07/24/2008

Main rounds coming tonight/tomorrow

So far today all the action has been kept over eastern NY state. Widespread 2 inch plus amounts have been reported with upwards of 6 inches! The area of rain is moving towards the NNE and only has a small component in the direction of SNE. As for severe weather in that area, a severe thunderstorm watch was issued by the SPC earlier today covering all of CT, RI, S MA, E NY, down into NJ, and W PA, but so far thunderstorms have remained below severe limits. This is mainly due to a lack of any low level instability.

Across Connecticut, depending on where you were, you may have even scored a little bit of sun shine today. Further east, E CT into RI and SE MA were alone as the unexpected exclusive receivers of severe weather from one very intense cell that plowed through. North of the Mass Pike, skies were overcast all day long, but with generally under an inch of rainfall.

Tonight, the area of rain in E NY right now will slowly shift into western New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible mainly north of the Mass Pike. South of the pike it is questionable where the southern edge of the rain shield will lie.

In terms of severe weather tonight, the watch over SNE remains in effect until 10pm. Radar in New York City and Philadelphia show scattered thunderstorms with cores up to 60dBZ so cant rule out some signficant boomers through midnight. These storms arent working off of instability so much as they are triggered by overrunning warm moist air and sustained with the high levels of shear. These features will remain with us through tonight and tomorrow, so there is no reason for convection to wane. Considering the high shear levels, the threat for an isolated tornado still exists.

Short range models indicate a break in the rain early tomorrow morning, before the main event comes in. This will be a plume of heavy rainfall that will train over the region through tomorrow evening. The rain should reach the south coast by 2am EDT, extending up to N MA by 6am. Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches will be possible in western New England with lesser amounts as you go east. The NAM is indicating locally up to 10 inches across parts of W MA, VT, and SW NH while the GFS shows up to 5 inches.

Heavy Rain Wednesday - Thursday

Heavy rain will linger around the region until later on Thursday. The rain will likely be very heavy overnight Wednesday. The NAM model estimates up to 10 inches, while the GFS model is more towards reality at 2-3". I predict that a total of 2-3" of rain will accumulate in Bristol by the clearing on Friday. Along with this rain comes the threat for severe storms. Our Severe Weather Forecaster Sam is predicting up to a 10% chance for an isolated tornado in the afternoon today. Most folks will get by with just some supercell thunderstorms. Watch out for the lightning, as it can kill. This combined weather data allows for a unique accuracy here at Tyler's Weather - each forecaster concentrates on a certain topic of the day - hence their title. Below are the images that depict the current weather event:

NAM Total Precipitation:


GFS Total Precipitation:


Severe Weather Potential:


Tyler's Weather Official Rainfall Forecast:
COMING SOON!

11AM UPDATE:Regarding Severe Potential

Good Morning Everyone,
I still see by late afternoon and getting into early evening that storms will be firing up, with that it will bring supercell thunderstorms,Very Gusty Winds, Large Hail, And Very Heavy Rains. I Do see the possibility of a Tornado Watch Being Issued By the Storm Prediction Center later this afternoon as the storms start to fire up. Updates will be issued as conditions warrant.

East Coast Severe 7/23 update

Not changing much from my original forecast. Sun is shining through the clouds throughout much of the area which should provide ample instability. I'm going to up tornado probs to 10% in the corridor from Philadelphia to Mass. The backing of winds is looking really potent and we could see a possible tornado outbreak inside the moderate risk. Winds and Hail probs remain the same. Look for supercells developing in the afternoon hours then becoming more linear by evening bringing high wind. Still a high bust potential with system though becasue of all the clouds. I will not be surprised if today isn't as bad as I'm prediciting.

Dolly approaching the coast, rapidly intensifying

Hurricane Dolly is slowing and possibly stalling, while it is also undergoing rapid intensification. Dolly, as of 8 am, has winds of 95 mph (high-end cat. 1) and a pressure of 978 mb. However, recon just found a pressure of 961 mb near the eye of Dolly. I predict Dolly will make landfall late this afternoon near or just north of South Padre Island as an intensifying cat. 2 hurricane.

Update on 97L coming this afternooon.

-Mitch

Tornado outlook for SNE 7/23

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon as mid level boundaries interact with abundant low level moisture. Anywhere that is able to scrape a second or two of sunshine today should watch out because any sunshine will contribute to instability which just a small amount of will be needed to fuel severe weather today. Jet dynamics are excellent, providing strong divergence aloft and contributing to over 45kts of shear. This will assist in multiple clusters of storms with damaging winds. In addition, the tornado threat will be high especially across SE NY and into western New England. Latest run of the SREF indicates CAPE around 2000J/kg in E PA and W NJ but dropping off quickly into New England. This will really be the main limiting factor as low level lapse rates will only be marginal for severe weather without any solar heating today. Mid level lapse rates will be increasing thoughout the day however, and this evening will likely feature an incredible severe weather preformance of multiple bows and supercells.

In addition to the tornado threat, training of thunderstorms will create significant flooding problems in any areas where this occurs. The heavy rain threat will continue through tomorrow, and the danger of flooding will be discussed later.

Inland tornado threat with Dolly

Hurricane Dolly is now very near the Coast of Southern Texas and Mexico. With Dolly, there is a tornado threat. Brownsville Texas has already seen a tornado warning. Along with wind and Tornado threats, Flooding rain is also a concern. Heavy rain bands are already beginning to come in Texas and Mexico, and it is going to be a very rough night for some.
Sincerely,
Zack

Severe Weather Outlook for the NE-M/A states 7/23

A front currently located in W PA will move toward the coast bringing with it a slight chance of thunderstorms for CT, W and C MA, S VT, C PA, and most of Virginia. A Moderate risk of thunderstorms will be located in E PA, MD, W NJ, and S NY. CAPE forecast from the 12z NAM suggests 2000-2500 J/Kg in SE PA down through Virginia which is more than sufficent instability. Elsewhere CAPE is commonly 1000-2000 J/Kg. Deep LI's commonly -4 to -6 are found in all area's inside the slight and moderate risks with the highest levels in E PA, MD, and NJ. Moisture is also abundant with this system with dew points in the upper 60's, low 70's. This and good LL lapse rates indicate that storms should have no problem firing tommorow and become severe. The biggest thing tommorow though is backed winds in the moderate risk zone. This is typically seen in severe outbreaks in the midwest. It is for this reason I am going 5% tornado probability inside the moderate risk as well as 2 % in the slight risk. A 40% wind probability is included in the moderate risk and 20% in the slight risk. Finally Hail probabilities will be 15% in all zones. A word of caution: Other models suggest possible cloud cover inside area's of the Moderate Risk. If this happens, most of the instability number will go down and may decrease the risk of Severe thunderstorms inside the risk zones. My next update is expected around 14z tommorow.

--Justin- Lead Severe Forecaster 03z Update

Dolly now a hurricane!

The NHC now says Dolly is a hurricane! Hurricane warnings have been issued in Southern Texas, and TS warnings have been issued North and South of that. Stay tuned for updates.
Sincerely,
Zack

Possible Moderate Risk Tomorrow

I have been alerted by several people at the SPC; we could be dealing with a Moderate Risk for SEVERE WEATHER tomorrow for the Local Region. I feel that CAPE will be nearing 4500 and it is known that supercells flourish in those types of enviornments. I do feel that a tornado watch may need to be issued - all depending on how things pans out tomorrow.

Also, on top of that, there is the possibility of Flooding and 2"-3" inches of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Accumulation maps will be issued soon by Chief Student Meteorologist Tyler. More updates will be issued as conditions warrant.

Dolly taking a jog to the North?

Hello everyone, Tropical Storm Dolly appears to be taking a jog to the NNW. As you know, sometimes, when a storm strengthens significantly, they can be pulled Northward. Due to the fact that this system is strengthening rapidly, My track has been adjusted North Considerably. All interests from Corpus Cristi to Brownsville Texas should continue to closely monitor this system.
Sincerely
Zack

12PM Dolly Satellite Update

Hello everyone! My name is Zack Cooper, And Tyler has allowed me to post on his blog. I will give my opinion on the tropics, as well as Hurricane expert Mitch. Tropical storm Dolly is very close to becoming a hurricane. Hurricane Warnings have been issued For South Texas. This means that Hurricane conditions are likely in the next 24 to 36 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are to the North and South of The Hurricane warnings. My projected path of the storm is posted above.
Sincerely,
Zack

Dolly Nearly a Hurricane; Bye-Bye Cristobal, 97L forms!

Lots to talk about in the tropics today. And think - it's only July. Just imagine what September will be like.

DOLLY: Tropical Storm Dolly's centers became vertically stacked last night, and therefore the storm is intensifying. The 11 am NHC advisory had Dolly at 70 mph, and moving northwest at 12 mph. That's a lot slower than yesterday, so Dolly is slowing down a little. That gives it more time to intensify. Dry air and the upper-level low are no longer problems with Dolly, as they are nowhere to be seen on water vapor imagery. Shear is low and water temperatures are high. Everything looks good for intensification. I have lowered my intensity forecast a little, and pushed the track a bit farther south based on the steering, satellite analysis, and model forecasts.

CRISTOBAL: Tropical Storm Cristobal is racing off to the northeast, and has winds of 65 mph. It is expected to weaken as it passes near Canada.

97L: We have a new invest! A new African wave has just come off the African coast at 18N. It has to endure the cool waters that Bertha passed through while moving west-northwest over the next few days. I predict that we have T.D. 5 by Thursday night.

Hello! Dolly and African Wave update

Hello! Tyler has chosen me to provide updates on the tropics on his blog. I will probably be updating every day, except if I'm away somewhere. So here's my update:

DOLLY: Tropical Storm Dolly has just emerged from the Yucatan. It has winds of 50 mph, and is moving WNW. Dolly's low-level and mid-level circulations are slowly consolidating and I expect them to be vertically stacked by tomorrow afternoon. Convection is still weak in the southeast quadrant, but I expect that to change once the centers become vertically stacked. The upper-level low is basically out of the picture now, so wind shear is about 5-10 knots. SSTs are also very favorable for development, at 29 degrees Celsius. So basically, once this thing becomes vertically stacked, expect some nice intensification. As for track: a weakness in the ridge to the north will begin to turn Dolly more northwesterly by tomorrow afternoon, but the ridge will build back in by it has already made landfall. Steering currents are weaker than usual in Dolly's future path, so she should slow down a little, which is already beginning to occur right now. This can all be seen in my forecast path and intensity:












CRISTOBAL: Tropical Storm Cristobal is slowly intensifying while moving northeast, away from land. It will likely be absorbed by a trough, although it may be a minimal hurricane as it is absorbed.

AFRICAN WAVE: A large area of low pressure is emerging from the African coast. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely by Thursday.

-Mitch

New Tropical System Dolly; Cristobal Update

There is a new tropical storm just off of the Yucatan Penninsula. Dubbed "Dolly," she will likely impact the south Texas coast around the Brownsville area. Cristobal, just off the coast in the central Atlantic, should prove no further threat to land. Rip currents, however, will remain strong through the coming days. The following graphics illustrate the possible impacts of these two storms.

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Position:


Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL EyePath:


Tropical Storm DOLLY Position:


Tropical Storm DOLLY EyePath:


Will CRISTOBAL Effect Bristol?


Will DOLLY Further Raise Oil Prices?

Tropical Storm Cristobal Nears

Well, here we have it. A brand new Tropical Storm will likely impact New England with rough rip currents and strong seas. Nevertheless, please use caution when swimming anywhere on the East Coast for the next five days. The following graphics illustrate the strength and possible effects of T.S. Cristobal.

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Position:

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL EyePath:

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Effects:

The Triple H's Arrive

That's right, Heat-Haze-Humidity!

Saturday will feature excessive temperatures in the Bristol area. The skies will be hazy and the air will be thick. The GRAPHIX map below illustrates the areas in Connecticut that will be most heavily effected. In addition, Air Quality Alerts remain in effect.

Saturday Temperatures:
Saturday Bulletins:

Bertha Regains Hurricane Status!

Here we have it! Deep into the North Atlantic, Bertha has regained her hurricane status. Here is the latest position and EyePath forecast:

Hurricane BERTHA Position:Hurricane BERTHA EyePath:

Announcement: Tyler's Weather Blog

August 1-11, 2008

Little League® Baseball
EAST REGION TOURNAMENT

Complete Tournament Coverage at www.UnPage.com
Look for me, Chief Program Seller, at the Tournament.

This is one of Bristol's best times of the year, and with McCabe-Waters on the loose, who knows what will happen at this stage in the tourney to South Williamsport, PA.