Hello! Dolly and African Wave update

Hello! Tyler has chosen me to provide updates on the tropics on his blog. I will probably be updating every day, except if I'm away somewhere. So here's my update:

DOLLY: Tropical Storm Dolly has just emerged from the Yucatan. It has winds of 50 mph, and is moving WNW. Dolly's low-level and mid-level circulations are slowly consolidating and I expect them to be vertically stacked by tomorrow afternoon. Convection is still weak in the southeast quadrant, but I expect that to change once the centers become vertically stacked. The upper-level low is basically out of the picture now, so wind shear is about 5-10 knots. SSTs are also very favorable for development, at 29 degrees Celsius. So basically, once this thing becomes vertically stacked, expect some nice intensification. As for track: a weakness in the ridge to the north will begin to turn Dolly more northwesterly by tomorrow afternoon, but the ridge will build back in by it has already made landfall. Steering currents are weaker than usual in Dolly's future path, so she should slow down a little, which is already beginning to occur right now. This can all be seen in my forecast path and intensity:












CRISTOBAL: Tropical Storm Cristobal is slowly intensifying while moving northeast, away from land. It will likely be absorbed by a trough, although it may be a minimal hurricane as it is absorbed.

AFRICAN WAVE: A large area of low pressure is emerging from the African coast. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely by Thursday.

-Mitch