Tornado outlook for SNE 7/23

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon as mid level boundaries interact with abundant low level moisture. Anywhere that is able to scrape a second or two of sunshine today should watch out because any sunshine will contribute to instability which just a small amount of will be needed to fuel severe weather today. Jet dynamics are excellent, providing strong divergence aloft and contributing to over 45kts of shear. This will assist in multiple clusters of storms with damaging winds. In addition, the tornado threat will be high especially across SE NY and into western New England. Latest run of the SREF indicates CAPE around 2000J/kg in E PA and W NJ but dropping off quickly into New England. This will really be the main limiting factor as low level lapse rates will only be marginal for severe weather without any solar heating today. Mid level lapse rates will be increasing thoughout the day however, and this evening will likely feature an incredible severe weather preformance of multiple bows and supercells.

In addition to the tornado threat, training of thunderstorms will create significant flooding problems in any areas where this occurs. The heavy rain threat will continue through tomorrow, and the danger of flooding will be discussed later.