Merry Christmas from Tyler's Weather!

Have a great Christmas Day & Christmas Vacation!

Heavy Snow Sunday - Map Issued Saturday

Here is the forecast:

*Higher Amounts Possible*

No School Today: Final Forecast

Here are the final forecast maps:

Headlines

Total Accumulations

Final Snowfall Accumulations

Here is the official Tyler's Weather Forecast:

TOTAL SNOWFALL:

CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS:

UPDATE: Winter Storm Watches Issued

The regional National Weather Service offices have already issued Winter Storm Watches for southern New England. This means that the potential is there for a minimum of 6" of snow.

NWS Watches:

Tyler's Weather.com FutureCast Model:
Total Snowfall

Major Snowstorm Friday

A Major Snowstorm is headed for our region. Even though the coastline may have some sleet mix in from time to time, substantial snow accumulations can still be expected in northern areas.

Below are the first thoughts:
Heaviest Snow Bands:

Busy Time in the Weather

A storm will deliver light snow accumulations to the Bristol area tonight. Expect the snow to change over to sleet and/or freezing rain around 7AM. Some leftover rain showers will be the main concern for the remainder of the morning.


SNOWFALL FORECAST:

Another substantial snowstorm will impact the region on Friday. Many areas could receive over 6" of new snow by Saturday morning. An updated post will be written tomorrow about that storm's potential.

Wintry Mess Wednesday

A storm system will bring some wintry conditions to our area on Wednesday. Stay tuned as this forecast will be modified as the week progesses:

Major Nor'easter to Strike New England

A major winter storm is headed for New England. With original roots in the Gulf of Mexico, this storm will be dripping full with moisture. However, not everyone will recieve the same type of precipitation. The map below illustrates the current Tyler's Weather.com forecast.

Sections of inland western and inland eastern Connecticut can expect an all-out ice storm. The precipitation will likely begin in the late morning on Thursday as rain. A quick change over to sleet and freezing rain will occur in these portions of the state. However, the shoreline and Hartford valley will remain all rain. As the storm dwindles to an end in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, everybody can expect some snow. This will not amount to much of any accumulation.

In Bristol, expect over .5 inches of ice accretion. This is significant and precautions should be taken. A slight coating of snow is possible as the storm exits early Friday morning.

There is a moderate chance of No School on Thursday.

First Ski Area to Open in the East!

Woodbury Ski Area

Woodbury, Connecticut

Partly Obama, with a 50% chance of McCain

Here's your Election Day forecast. Looks dry across much of the nation. Still, two storm systems will have to be watched closely. The first in the west will cause widespread clouds and showers across Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, North Dakota, and portions of northern California, Nevada, and Utah. The middle of the nation will enjoy sunny skies east into the Ohio Valley as high pressure remains in control. The second storm system could actually become a hybrid tropical cyclone. This storm will affect portions of eastern North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Back home in the northeast, skies will average partly to mostly cloudy as the storm to the south skirts under the region. There could be some morning fog across the valleys of New England as well.

Weekend Looks Fantastic for Fall

This Weekend's Forecast:

Snow in the CT Hills, Snowstorm for Northern New York

It's not even Halloween. The elections are still to come.

...SNOW?

On Tuesday, expect rain showers on/off through out the day. As a large storm winds up to our SE and East during the day, a cold front will pass through the region. Temperatures will become even chillier than previous days. With that, the result is snow. Yes. Be prepared for some rain/snow showers throughout the evening. These rain/snow showers will continue through Wednesday. Don't get too mad about this early showing of snow, as portions of northern New York state will easily pick up a foot!
Forecast Graphic:
GFS Snow Output Graphic:

Nothing much happening

I havent posted in over a month so i figured i would post a quick update on winter weather and the tropics, we have the tropical storm well out in the Atlantic dying as we speak.. So who cares? Not much going on in the nation with winter weather really, so check back during a major snow event or tropical system.

-zackc

Tropical Storm Nana

TROPICAL STORM NANA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST OR ABOUT 925 MILES...1485 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

NANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...16.4 N...37.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

A cold and stormy November possible

Taking a look at the September 500mb height anomalies, three distinct regions are evident.


I created a time series for the three areas, and sorted the years to find a best match for each one. Using the each time series, I also made a custom series (Area B + Area C - Area A). I took the top 20 (minus 2008 which was first as to be expected) for possible analogs and sorted through them, eliminating El Nino and +AAM years as well as years where the custom data was skewed due to a strong anomaly in only one of the areas but not the rest. The resulting years (in chronological order) were 1949, 1956, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2007.


As you can see, the average of the list of analogs returns a fairly close match to the September 2008 pattern.

Because features in the atmosphere are interconnected to some degree, using the analogs presented, we can get a general idea for the future. Roll forward analogs generally work best in the 25+ day range. This is because before then there is a transitional period during which the signals from each analog are widely spread and average to a weak, blurry signal.


In this case, the October analog average does not have high magnitude anomalies, however November features an node in the analogs. There is a strong signal at this time for +PNA ridging with a trough over the eastern US. In fact 11 of the 12 analogs show below normal heights in the east with the only exception being 1999 during which the mean ridge axis was further east.





The MJO should be into octant 5 of phase space by November 15 to 18, during which time a negative NAO develops. At this point in time, the possibility of a measurable snowfall between the 18th and the 25th is looking good.

Early snow possible!!!!

Nothing in the tropics

Yeah, yeah, we have Subtropical Storm Laura. Boring.

Check back during the next REAL tropical system.


-Mitch

Potential Tropical Cyclone

A system is developing off of Hispaniola, which may eventually impact the East coast. More updates to follow as this storm strengthens. Current status is a Tropical "Invest."

November 1" snowfall risk

My primary forecasting knowledge is in Winter Weather, I have studied it for eight years, tropics come in second with 4 years experience, I just thought I would share my forecast with you for a November 1" snowfall risk, From looking at the patterns and some long range models, I think there will be a weak system that is very large crossing Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri bringing 1 to 2 inch snowfall to those areas. I think there may be even some Ice or snow flurries as far South as El Dorado Arkansas. I will keep you updated on this possible snow event... as well as try to pinpoint a time period getting smaller every week.

Zack

Northeast T'storm threat Tuesday

A cold front will approach the region tomorrow with overspreading clouds and a chance of showers. Colder air aloft coming in behind Hanna will allow some conditional instability to develop (around 500 to 1000 J/kg) despite a lack of solar heating. In addition, a mid level jet of 40 to 60kts will create a significant threat for damaging winds. The possibility exists for a squall line formation to sweep through tomorrow afternoon around 2 in western New England into eastern PA, reaching eastern New England by 6. PWATs around 1.5" to 1.8" will allow some heavy downpours to occur, and any areas that received flooding from Hanna may have to deal with some renewed problems. SPC day 2 outlooks puts the region in a 30% risk for severe weather which supports my confidence in an active weather day tomorrow.

Hurricane Ike to Strike United States

Although many days away, Hurricane Ike will likely strike anywhere from Texas to Louisiana later this week. He is currently a very strong storm, nearing Cuba. Updates will follow throughout this week, but for now, here is a preliminary forecast with satellite views from Early Warning Doppler HD:

(Click for Animation)
Major Hurricane Ike TrakPath:

Water Vapor Satellite:
Enhanced Infrared Satellite:

Severe Potential-9/19 Slight Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under A "Slight" Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Here is what they are saying:
...THE NORTHEAST SWWD ACROSS THE TN/MID MS VALLEYS... A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. WHILE AREAS OF GREATEST THREAT ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM DUE TO A ROUGHLY 6 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL ADVANCE...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM WV/VA NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HERE...STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...COMBINING WITH GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
Credit:www.spc.noaa.gov
Stay Tuned, Updates will be provided as conditions warrant.

Hanna Pounding Connecticut

Hello folks, the rain has reached is maximum intensity as I write, 9:30PM. A total of 2.64" has fallen so far with a current rain rate of about .61" per hour. I expect at least one more inch to fall. By tomorrow morning, some flooded roads can be expected along with flooded basements. Here is the latest radar, showing complete precipitation coverage - statewide!

Hurricane Ike graphic

Hurricane Ike

Ike is looking very threatening. It could be like Anrew.
Hannah an Josephine outlooks coming soon.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA TO HIT CONNECTICUT

Multiple storm warnings have been posted. Heavy rain from the remnants of Gustav are set to begin in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. However, don't think you're off the hook when the rain stops midday Saturday. Tropical Storm Hanna will be lurking on our back door. Pounding winds and tropical rains will swipe through Bristol overnight.

Current Watches/Warnings:Three-Day FastCast:
Expected Rainfall:

Hurricane Ike update

As you have seen from my graphics, Ike could be very similar to Andrew and could be a Cat 5 when it makes landfall. This is a very dangerous situation an all people along the East Coast and the Gulf Coast should keep a very close eye on this system, as it could be very similar to Andrew, Or it could be very different than Andrew, and make a landfall somewhere along the East Coast!

Zack

Three Active Tropical Cyclones

Many tropical systems are brewing in the Atlantic. I expect Hanna to organize and hit the Carolinas as a Category 1 storm. Major Hurricane Ike, already packing winds of 100MPH+ in the Atlantic, may entire the Gulf of Mexico by the latter half of this week. Josephine will be no threat to the U.S. mainland.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA:
MAJOR HURRICANE IKE:
OVERALL VIEW OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN:

Ike a category 3 major hurricane!

The NHC just issued a special advisory at 8pm to account for the rapid intensification. Ike is now a 100kt category 3 major hurricane. Continued strengthening is likely and Ike could be a dangerous category 4 storm by tomorrow.

Ike strengthening quickly

Not yet sure about rapid intensification (RI), however after being declared a hurricane in the 5pm advisory, Ike's satellite presentation continues to improve. Dvorak T#s are coming in around 6! That would be major hurricane status. Unless the structure continues to improve like this, I doubt the NHC goes with a change of that magnitude, but a significant upgrade is still likely and I am very confident that Ike is at least a category two right now. The current satellite presentation is taking on a somewhat annular look, with a more "buzz-saw" appearance versus feeder bands. In addition to strengthening, I think Ike will begin to increase in size as well over the next few days. Right now, I am very confident in Ike becoming a major hurricane, and category 4 strength is not out of the question either. The strength of the ridge to the north still looks sufficient to bring Ike to the Bahamas by day 4 or 5. Where it goes from there is a little uncertain so the southeast US coastline needs to monitor this storm very closely.

A look at the tropics

Ok.. tropics very hot right now... and we may see another depression form within 1 to 3 days,, Phew!

Hannah: Hannah is weakening steadily now, Just like Gustav did once it made it into the GOM. The forecast for Gustav called for it to strengthen, but it never did. I think the same may be happening with Hannah, as it is called to become a hurricane, but is weakening. I still do expect a 70 mph to 90 mph storm at landfall. Flooding will be a concern.

Ike: I think Ike will become a Cat 5 hurricane before all said and done, and will be a threat to the Gulf Coast. I think this is now going to go into steady intensification for the next 3 days, and then rapid to explosive strengthening once in the GOM. As for landfall, at this time I think it will go through the Florida Straits. But I think extreme South Florida may see a Landfall as well. Folks, this system reminds me of Hurricane Andrew, and an Andrew like path is possible, as well as intensity. At this time, I think anywhere from Northern Mexico to the Florida panhandle along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on this, as well as Cuba and South Florida.

Josephine: Josephine is a threat to Bermuda. I expect this system to remain a tropical storm over the next 3 to 7 days. There is a chance that this system could be very similar to Bertha, and it does remind me of Bertha. The NHC track for Bertha called for it to stay a TS, But it became a Cat 3 hurricane extremely quickly. So Bermuda as well as the East Coast should keep a close eye on this systems. I do think that it will stay away from the East Coast.. however they should still keep tabs on these systems.


Zack

Tropical Action

Gustav made landfall earlier today, and now all eyes turn to Hanna, TD 9 (Ike), and new developments off the African coast. It's peak season folks!

Gustav a threat to LA

Hello everyone! Sorry I have not posted here in a while. Ok here is my update on Gustav, Hannah and other tropical tidbits out there!

Gustav: Now Hurricane Gustav is moving NW and is threatening the Cayman Islands, and will be threatening Cuba Tomorrow! Then a GOM movement is expected and I am very worried about intensity! I think this system will become a Cat 3 very easy, and maybe even become cat 4 or 5. As for the track: I expect Gustav to stay on a NW track for a while. I then expect this system to hit the GOM and explode. I expect this system to make landfall in central LA and then continue moving WNW to NW.

Hannah: I expect Hannah to continue to slowly strengthen and move WNW to NW. Then I expect a ridge to block it South and Send it back into South Florida or just South of Florida and maybe into the GOM. Ok, I will point this out as well, although I know you dont want to hear it. This system COULD become a major hurricane IF it makes it into the GOM.

97L: 97L is on its way to becoming a depression and will most likely become our third cyclone within the next 2 to three days. I expect a W to WNW movement for the next few days!

Zack

Hurricane Gustav to hit as Category 3 - 4 storm

~ Gustav is now a Category 1 Hurricane ~

The maps below illustrate the potential destruction that is to come. New Orleans residents are already beginning to evacuate. I expect this storm may reach Category 5 intensity somewhere in the wide-open gulf, but it WILL weaken before landfall. I expect it to hit the coast 75 - 200 miles west of New Orleans. Please stay tuned to the Tyler's Weather.com Blog.

TrakPath:
Close-Up Landfall:Potential Effects:Potential Effects:

Gustav extremely dangerous! Cat. 4-5 likely

Hi everyone! First, about the maps, I didn't use the HD ones because none of them really showed the whole area of my forecast. So, without further ado, here's the outlook for Gustav. I will have an update on Hanna tomorrow.

"Tropical Stormicane" Gustav is south of Jamaica and moving WSW. It probably was a hurricane and may still be, because of the center relocation to the south so it somehow missed hitting Jamaica directly. That being said, Gustav is over a bathtub of warm water and very low shear. It is expected to turn to the WNW and strengthen as it moves through the Yucatan Channel. My forecast calls for a more pronounced turn to the north due to the weakness in the ridge to the north, plus the steering current forecasts. The models are a little farther west.So here is the forecast for Gustav:

Hurricane Gustav - Potential Category 5 Gulf Coast Hit

Attention all blog readers:

Hurricane Gustav is rapidly growing in size and strength over the open waters near South Cuba. It will likely become a Major Hurricane; the first of the season, and may hit the Gulf Coast. New Orleans, Louisiana should keep a vivid eye on this beast. A high pressure system off of Florida will prevent Gustav from veering eastward - as originally predicted by some meteorologists. Below are some HD Graphics for your visual enjoyment:

TrakPath:
Hurricane Intensity Descriptions: