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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Ike strengthening quickly

Not yet sure about rapid intensification (RI), however after being declared a hurricane in the 5pm advisory, Ike's satellite presentation continues to improve. Dvorak T#s are coming in around 6! That would be major hurricane status. Unless the structure continues to improve like this, I doubt the NHC goes with a change of that magnitude, but a significant upgrade is still likely and I am very confident that Ike is at least a category two right now. The current satellite presentation is taking on a somewhat annular look, with a more "buzz-saw" appearance versus feeder bands. In addition to strengthening, I think Ike will begin to increase in size as well over the next few days. Right now, I am very confident in Ike becoming a major hurricane, and category 4 strength is not out of the question either. The strength of the ridge to the north still looks sufficient to bring Ike to the Bahamas by day 4 or 5. Where it goes from there is a little uncertain so the southeast US coastline needs to monitor this storm very closely.

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