Nothing in the tropics

Yeah, yeah, we have Subtropical Storm Laura. Boring.

Check back during the next REAL tropical system.


-Mitch

Potential Tropical Cyclone

A system is developing off of Hispaniola, which may eventually impact the East coast. More updates to follow as this storm strengthens. Current status is a Tropical "Invest."

November 1" snowfall risk

My primary forecasting knowledge is in Winter Weather, I have studied it for eight years, tropics come in second with 4 years experience, I just thought I would share my forecast with you for a November 1" snowfall risk, From looking at the patterns and some long range models, I think there will be a weak system that is very large crossing Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri bringing 1 to 2 inch snowfall to those areas. I think there may be even some Ice or snow flurries as far South as El Dorado Arkansas. I will keep you updated on this possible snow event... as well as try to pinpoint a time period getting smaller every week.

Zack

Northeast T'storm threat Tuesday

A cold front will approach the region tomorrow with overspreading clouds and a chance of showers. Colder air aloft coming in behind Hanna will allow some conditional instability to develop (around 500 to 1000 J/kg) despite a lack of solar heating. In addition, a mid level jet of 40 to 60kts will create a significant threat for damaging winds. The possibility exists for a squall line formation to sweep through tomorrow afternoon around 2 in western New England into eastern PA, reaching eastern New England by 6. PWATs around 1.5" to 1.8" will allow some heavy downpours to occur, and any areas that received flooding from Hanna may have to deal with some renewed problems. SPC day 2 outlooks puts the region in a 30% risk for severe weather which supports my confidence in an active weather day tomorrow.

Hurricane Ike to Strike United States

Although many days away, Hurricane Ike will likely strike anywhere from Texas to Louisiana later this week. He is currently a very strong storm, nearing Cuba. Updates will follow throughout this week, but for now, here is a preliminary forecast with satellite views from Early Warning Doppler HD:

(Click for Animation)
Major Hurricane Ike TrakPath:

Water Vapor Satellite:
Enhanced Infrared Satellite:

Severe Potential-9/19 Slight Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under A "Slight" Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Here is what they are saying:
...THE NORTHEAST SWWD ACROSS THE TN/MID MS VALLEYS... A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. WHILE AREAS OF GREATEST THREAT ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM DUE TO A ROUGHLY 6 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL ADVANCE...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM WV/VA NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HERE...STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...COMBINING WITH GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
Credit:www.spc.noaa.gov
Stay Tuned, Updates will be provided as conditions warrant.

Hanna Pounding Connecticut

Hello folks, the rain has reached is maximum intensity as I write, 9:30PM. A total of 2.64" has fallen so far with a current rain rate of about .61" per hour. I expect at least one more inch to fall. By tomorrow morning, some flooded roads can be expected along with flooded basements. Here is the latest radar, showing complete precipitation coverage - statewide!

Hurricane Ike graphic

Hurricane Ike

Ike is looking very threatening. It could be like Anrew.
Hannah an Josephine outlooks coming soon.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA TO HIT CONNECTICUT

Multiple storm warnings have been posted. Heavy rain from the remnants of Gustav are set to begin in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. However, don't think you're off the hook when the rain stops midday Saturday. Tropical Storm Hanna will be lurking on our back door. Pounding winds and tropical rains will swipe through Bristol overnight.

Current Watches/Warnings:Three-Day FastCast:
Expected Rainfall:

Hurricane Ike update

As you have seen from my graphics, Ike could be very similar to Andrew and could be a Cat 5 when it makes landfall. This is a very dangerous situation an all people along the East Coast and the Gulf Coast should keep a very close eye on this system, as it could be very similar to Andrew, Or it could be very different than Andrew, and make a landfall somewhere along the East Coast!

Zack

Three Active Tropical Cyclones

Many tropical systems are brewing in the Atlantic. I expect Hanna to organize and hit the Carolinas as a Category 1 storm. Major Hurricane Ike, already packing winds of 100MPH+ in the Atlantic, may entire the Gulf of Mexico by the latter half of this week. Josephine will be no threat to the U.S. mainland.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA:
MAJOR HURRICANE IKE:
OVERALL VIEW OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN:

Ike a category 3 major hurricane!

The NHC just issued a special advisory at 8pm to account for the rapid intensification. Ike is now a 100kt category 3 major hurricane. Continued strengthening is likely and Ike could be a dangerous category 4 storm by tomorrow.

Ike strengthening quickly

Not yet sure about rapid intensification (RI), however after being declared a hurricane in the 5pm advisory, Ike's satellite presentation continues to improve. Dvorak T#s are coming in around 6! That would be major hurricane status. Unless the structure continues to improve like this, I doubt the NHC goes with a change of that magnitude, but a significant upgrade is still likely and I am very confident that Ike is at least a category two right now. The current satellite presentation is taking on a somewhat annular look, with a more "buzz-saw" appearance versus feeder bands. In addition to strengthening, I think Ike will begin to increase in size as well over the next few days. Right now, I am very confident in Ike becoming a major hurricane, and category 4 strength is not out of the question either. The strength of the ridge to the north still looks sufficient to bring Ike to the Bahamas by day 4 or 5. Where it goes from there is a little uncertain so the southeast US coastline needs to monitor this storm very closely.

A look at the tropics

Ok.. tropics very hot right now... and we may see another depression form within 1 to 3 days,, Phew!

Hannah: Hannah is weakening steadily now, Just like Gustav did once it made it into the GOM. The forecast for Gustav called for it to strengthen, but it never did. I think the same may be happening with Hannah, as it is called to become a hurricane, but is weakening. I still do expect a 70 mph to 90 mph storm at landfall. Flooding will be a concern.

Ike: I think Ike will become a Cat 5 hurricane before all said and done, and will be a threat to the Gulf Coast. I think this is now going to go into steady intensification for the next 3 days, and then rapid to explosive strengthening once in the GOM. As for landfall, at this time I think it will go through the Florida Straits. But I think extreme South Florida may see a Landfall as well. Folks, this system reminds me of Hurricane Andrew, and an Andrew like path is possible, as well as intensity. At this time, I think anywhere from Northern Mexico to the Florida panhandle along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on this, as well as Cuba and South Florida.

Josephine: Josephine is a threat to Bermuda. I expect this system to remain a tropical storm over the next 3 to 7 days. There is a chance that this system could be very similar to Bertha, and it does remind me of Bertha. The NHC track for Bertha called for it to stay a TS, But it became a Cat 3 hurricane extremely quickly. So Bermuda as well as the East Coast should keep a close eye on this systems. I do think that it will stay away from the East Coast.. however they should still keep tabs on these systems.


Zack

Tropical Action

Gustav made landfall earlier today, and now all eyes turn to Hanna, TD 9 (Ike), and new developments off the African coast. It's peak season folks!