Easter Storm?

Now that the rain is moving out of the area as this storm departs, all eyes turn to a potential storm on Easter Monday/Tuesday. At the very moment, model agreement is not good whatsoever. Most models are trending in different directions, except one, the JMA, which has been showing a large coastal storm consistently. First if all, I'd like to show you the 12z GFS...
This is the storm's closest pass to the East Coast. It is the farthest west the GFS has been in a few days. This is a step in the right direction, as it has not been even recognizing the storm the last few runs.

Now we have the ECMWF, which was adamant about a major or even potentially historic East Coast event on its 12z run yesterday and its 00z run last night. Today at 12z, it has moved much farther east and would not give any substantial precip to the area. It is rather unusuak for a storm to trend so much in just one run, so it is definitely not done trending either way.

Now we have the UKMET and the GGEM. The UKMET was agreeing with the ECMWF at 00z last night. It has now backed off a little and is in the middle of the road between the GFS now and its own 00z run last night. The GGEM is in agreement with the GFS right now.

Now we come to the JMA. Personally, I really dislike the JMA and rarely use it, but right now on its 12z run it is showing a major east coast storm and is in line with the 00z ECMWF last night. We'll see how it handles the storm over the next few runs.

One last thing I'd like to mention is the NAO.

As you can see, it is about -1 for the storm's time frame. Is that negative enough to suppress the storm completely out to sea? Probably not. Plus, it shoots positive after the storm which is a good trend for an east coast storm.

In my opinion, the storm is going to take a track somewhere between the JMA and UKMET, meaning at least a little snow is possible for most of MA, CT, RI, and southern NH. Now will that change from now and the storm? Probably... Stay tuned to the blog where our other Precision Plus First Alert team members will be posting about this for the rest of the week. More analysis and GRAPHIX maps to come.