August 10th Severe Weather

An upper level low spinning near the Great Lakes tomorrow will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over the area tomorrow afternoon, and some of those storms will be severe. The areas I think are at the greatest risk are Vermont and southern NJ/northeastern MD. These are the areas where the best dynamics for severe storms will set up (moderate CAPE and low LI). That being said, the risk is not all that high...only a slight risk through the region...though in southern NJ it is a 30% slight risk, which is one step below a moderate risk.

The main risk for tomorrow is going to be small hail and damaging straight-line winds. Some storms may feature large or even marginally severe hail due cold upper-level temps, but I do not think it will be widespread.

Here is the accompanying map:

Tropics about to heat up

Well folks, it's August. We're getting into the peak of hurricane season, and the latest model guidance supports that. There is not much to talk about, but I am watching 3 areas for development for next week. I will give a short discussion on each.

Future low off East Coast, 72-144 hours: Cool SSTs are the problem here. There is only a small window of development as it moves to the northeast due to a trough. I do not expect anything more than a tropical storm, if that.

Future Central Atlantic low: The CMC and UKMET develop this low and take it north of the islands. I see no reason why this should not form, but I am not giving an intensity or path forecast right now.

Future Cape Verde storm: I have been watching this one very closely. A vigorous wave is forecast to come off Africa tomorrow, and develop shortly thereafter. Literally everything is favorable for development for the long trek across the Atlantic, so I am predicting a hurricane from this. The track is very uncertain, though, as it could range anywhere from the 1938 Long Island Express to Hurricane Dean of 2007. It will almost certainly hit land somewhere because of a building ridge in the Atlantic.


-Mitch

Elsewhere, no development is expected over the next 5 days.