Severe t'storms, hail tomorrow

A strong upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes is providing a cold pool aloft with 500mb temperatures around -15C. The low is generating a 40kt mid level southwesterly jet across the northeast while a 995mb surface low produces southerly / south-southeasterly flow into southern New England. Abundant low level moisture combined with periods of sunshine tomorrow will destabilize the atmosphere with afternoon surface CAPE of 1000J/kg to 1500J/kg. This is a classic set up for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southeast of the upper low, intersecting the low level jet. In this case, the severe threat area extends across most of New York State into western and southern New England.

With the deep cold pool aloft, the primary threat with any thunderstorms will be large hail. Damaging wind gusts are also possible and depending on the extent of the easterly component on the low level winds, we could see a tornado or two develop.

Medium chance of development

There is a new invest out there. This system is firing up some good convection, and I would say development of this system is likely.

Lets discuss Track and strength of this new invest.

My cone for this system is very wide, because this system hasn't developed yet, so we can't really be sure where it is going to head, but a track into the Gulf of Mexico is pretty much certain. Once this system gets into the Gulf of Mexico, I would say the steering currents are going to be very weak, and will allow this system to sit and strengthen due to the increasingly favorable conditions for development that is forecast.

I do expect this system to become Ana, and I do expect it to possibly become a hurricane, but we can definately not be sure of that.

Another update soon!

Zack Cooper

With summer comes thunderstorms

Summer weather arrived today as the pesky ocean storm that was holding clouds and cold temperatures over the region has finally moved away. Low level moisture is very well established, with dew points in the 60's across the region. High temperatures have reached the low 80's over western New England and a few 90's have shown up southwest across Pennsylvania. All in all, this spells instability. CAPE has reached 1500 to 2000J/kg further west this afternoon. Low pressure entering Quebec is dragging a cold front across the eastern Great Lakes. A prefrontal trough is already the focus for a solid complex of severe storms over western New York with single cell storms popping up further east. These will tend to wane in strength with the loss of daytime heating, however there is still the chance for a shower and/or some thunder later tonight around midnight to 1am.

We will see an increase in clouds Friday morning as the cold front approaches the region. The timing of the front will largely dictate the severity of storms that develop. An early passage will result in limited time for destabilization, and vice versa. We will see an increase coverage of thunderstorms toward the early afternoon, with showers and storms becoming likely over western New England by 1pm, spreading to eastern areas by 4pm.

Winds will be unidirectional west-southwest with height with about 30kts of speed shear. This will support primarily damaging wind potential, although small hail cannot be ruled out further west, closer to the mid level cold pool.

The severe threat should end over western New England by 6pm, eastern zones 9pm.

Not much out there

A couple of tropical waves, but nothing too serious.

I do not expect any of these waves to develop at this time,

I will post if something develops this season.