FutureCast Has Very Heavy Snow

Here is what FutureCast, a computer model, projects for the total snow accumulations. The darkest blue area is 14"-16". However, I think that area will see more like 12" for a snow total.

FUTURECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL:

MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY:

Major Winter Storm on the Way

On Sunday, expect some passing snow showers with little or no accumulation. The main event will be in here for Sunday Night and through the day on Monday. Yes, this storm could potentially be the biggest snow producer of the season. The track will still have to be tweaked a bit on Sunday, but as of now I think many areas in Connecticut will easily surpass one foot of powder. Stay tuned to Tyler's Weather for continuing non-stop coverage through the weekend. Plus, my school forecast will be out tomorrow afternoon.

TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY:

TOTAL SNOWFALL BY MONDAY EVENING:

Wow! Quite a shift in Tonight's GFS Model Run

It now looks like the second low pressure system, that is the Monday one, will rob the Sunday storm of energy. I may have to lower the snow amounts to 0"-2" if this continues to verify tomorrow. However, do not think that we would be out of the woods if I lower the totals. Now, it appears we will be dealing with a significant winter storm in New England on Monday, with a mixture of snow and sleet on the south coasts and all snow once you head far enough north and west. Here is the scenario map from earlier:

Preliminary Sunday Snowfall Forecast

Here is my first forecast for the Sunday snow. Expect the snow to develop by midnight on Saturday/Sunday, and continue through late morning here in Bristol. Total snow accumulations will be 2"-4". The snow will be wet and heavy to clear away.

Winter Storm on Sunday

A coastal storm will bring the region heavy precipitation on Sunday. Snow? Ice? Rain? That's the forecast issue that still needs to be fine tuned. Right now, it looks like Bristol will see a moderate snowfall, which will then change to sleet. It should continue through Sunday evening.

Storm Timer:

Sunday Storm Coverage

A winter storm will impact the region on Sunday (tomorrow). Expect marginal surface temperatures to allow for a few rain showers in the morning for all locations, however, colder air will filter in as a secondary storm whips up strength out towards Cape Cod. This will deliver more precipitation to eastern Connecticut and Massachusetts, but temperatures should remain above freezing in those areas for a good chunk of the storm. They could see up to a slushy coating as the storm pulls away. In western Connecticut, colder temperatures should allow for more snow. This is where a sticky 1"-3" of accumulation should occur. The further north you go towards and into the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, more snow will accumulate to levels of about 3"-6".

Possible Mix to Rain on Thursday

Here is my preliminary forecast. A storm will bring periods of rain on Thursday to our area. The precipitation may start and end as sleet or freezing rain. This storm looks to deliver most it's snow to northern parts of New England, just in time for my vacation up there. I will try my best to write up some snowstorm reports on Thursday or Friday.

Preliminary Forecast:

Tyler's Weather Storm Tracking:

New England Winter Storm Next Week

Next week, a storm system could impact the region. Many scenarios can still play out, but one thing is for sure: either Connecticut or Northern Vermont will see snow. I will be on vacation in Northern Vermont. In between snowmobiling, I will try post updates if the heaviest snows actually occur up there. It is still way too early to tell, so please stay tuned to the main website and blog for further updates!

Weather Briefing 2/10/09

Weather Briefing 2/9/09

Total Snowfall vs. Normal Snowfall

On the graphic below, you can see the snowfall totals and the departure from average this winter. Most of these areas have similar normal totals, but as you can see, this year has brought much more snow to parts of southeastern New England as compared to the averages.

Rain in the Adirondacks?

Sky Alert HD Doppler is picking up some rain and mixed precipitation in upstate New York. It's pretty dismal to have rain in these areas in early February. This upcoming week will bring mild temperatures with spells of rain, so this is just a quick taste of what's to come!

Rainy Weather on Thursday

Precision MesoCast

Want to watch the Precision MesoCast snowfall model during storms? Now you can! Scroll to the bottom of this page to see the current model prejection.

Final School Predictions

45% Early Dismissal
35% Regular Day
20% School Cancellation

~ I must emphasize the low end of confidence on this forecast ~

There is a high changeability factor involved here. Since the snow should only be periodic in the moring, that may rule out a school cancellation. The steadier snow in the afternoon is what has me leaning towards an early dismissal. If in fact an early dismissal occurs, it may or may not be called in the morning. The second top choice is a regular day. If this occurs, be careful on the snowcovered roads as the potential is there to see 2" or more of snow accumulation.

Tuesday Snowfall Forecast

Here is the final snowfall forecast for Tuesday. Many schools in the blue area may close due to an all day, periodic snow event. Although accumulations will be light, Bristol may see some type of school interruption. These numbers will be updated later and sent out in the exclusive alert email.

55% Regular Day
30% Early Dismissal
15% No School

Forecast Discussion Update

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 00z SUN. 2/2/09

*MINOR EVENT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONSISTENCY /WESTWARD TREND/ OF THE 00Z NAM OR GFS TONIGHT BEFORE A SNOW MAP IS ISSUED.

ECMWF HAS A SNOWSTORM TRACK WITH PLOWABLE SNOW /3"+/ IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL STICK WITH ORIGINAL FORECAST FROM SATURDAY OF 2"-4". THIS WOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING OF TUESDAY.

TWFD Update

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 17z SUN. 2/1/09

*WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

12z ECMWF COMING OUT SOON. IF WE HAVE CONSISTENCY, A SNOW MAP WILL BE ISSUED BY 19Z 2/1/09.

Tyler's Weather Forecast Discussion

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 17z SUN. 2/1/09

*WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

A ROLLER COASTER SET OF MODELS HAVE BEEN REVIEWED AND NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. BASIC QPF TOTALS WERE DERIVED FROM THE 09Z SREF /WHICH CONTINUES THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IDEA/ AND FROM FUTURECAST. EARLY CALCULATIONS SHOW 4"-8" OF SNOW FOR THE SNE AREA. THINKING THIS WILL BE NEAR A .5" QPF EVENT, BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE FOR THE LOWER OR HIGHER DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK. ECMWF CONTINUES IT'S STAGNANT FAR EAST TRACK, BUT 00Z RUN HAS BAGGY ISOBARS OFF THE COAST. POSSIBLY TRIES TO DEVELOP THE SECONDARY AS SIMILARLY ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM RUNS. WILL STICK TO 06Z NAM FOR TRACK. GFS HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM RUN-TO-RUN, SO HAS BEEN SET ASIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

12Z MODEL RUN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE DELMARVA COAST. HOWEVER, 12Z GFS OP RUN BRINGS THE LOW OTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE GFS HAS BEEN SET ASIDE DUE TO ITS INCONSISTENCIES.

INTERNATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE OFF SHORE CAMP. DUE TO THEIR LOW RESOLUTION AND 24HR INTERVALS, WE CANNOT MAKE ACCURATE ASSUMPTIONS AS TO THE SECONDARY LOW.

WILL STICK TO 06Z NAM FOR TRACK AND 09Z SREF/FUTURECAST FOR THE QPF TOTALS. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MORE RUNS WILL COME IN, NOTABLY THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WATCH FOR ANY TRENDS, AND MAY ALTER FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE UPCOMING CRITICAL RUNS.