Tropical Storm Danny

This weekend is not looking great at this point. We have a new tropical system forming east of the Bahamas, and it is expected to scoot by the outer banks of NC before impacting southern New England. The exact track is not yet known, but there is high confidence on the cone track as shown below. The center of the storm, with winds likely over 50mph, could pass anywhere between southeastern CT and Cape Cod, MA. Waves will be a danger along with viscous rip currents. Flooding will be the main concern over inland areas, as upwards of 2"-4" could fall, all depending on the final track the storm takes.

Heavy Storms to the West

Here is the current radar.

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Forecast Update: Precipitation Not as Intense

The precipitation is falling at lower rates than originally thought, and therefore, the totals will be slightly less. Here is an updated map:

Heavy Rain Overnight Thursday, Tapering Friday

A storm with tropical origins will ride just east of the area tonight, delivering gusty winds and heavy rains. The total rainfall forecast is below, and for Bristol, I expect about 2" of rain. Some roads may become flooded around Bristol by midday Friday after all the runoff has made it into area rivers and streams.

Tropical Moisture Bombards Area Friday

Here is the forecast:

Stormy Skies Saturday Evening

Watch out for showers and thundershowers as you head outside later on Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring rainy weather to the greater Bristol area overnight Saturday. If traveling to the north or west, watch out for potential severe weather during the day on Saturday.

Severe t'storms, hail tomorrow

A strong upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes is providing a cold pool aloft with 500mb temperatures around -15C. The low is generating a 40kt mid level southwesterly jet across the northeast while a 995mb surface low produces southerly / south-southeasterly flow into southern New England. Abundant low level moisture combined with periods of sunshine tomorrow will destabilize the atmosphere with afternoon surface CAPE of 1000J/kg to 1500J/kg. This is a classic set up for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southeast of the upper low, intersecting the low level jet. In this case, the severe threat area extends across most of New York State into western and southern New England.

With the deep cold pool aloft, the primary threat with any thunderstorms will be large hail. Damaging wind gusts are also possible and depending on the extent of the easterly component on the low level winds, we could see a tornado or two develop.

Medium chance of development

There is a new invest out there. This system is firing up some good convection, and I would say development of this system is likely.

Lets discuss Track and strength of this new invest.

My cone for this system is very wide, because this system hasn't developed yet, so we can't really be sure where it is going to head, but a track into the Gulf of Mexico is pretty much certain. Once this system gets into the Gulf of Mexico, I would say the steering currents are going to be very weak, and will allow this system to sit and strengthen due to the increasingly favorable conditions for development that is forecast.

I do expect this system to become Ana, and I do expect it to possibly become a hurricane, but we can definately not be sure of that.

Another update soon!

Zack Cooper

With summer comes thunderstorms

Summer weather arrived today as the pesky ocean storm that was holding clouds and cold temperatures over the region has finally moved away. Low level moisture is very well established, with dew points in the 60's across the region. High temperatures have reached the low 80's over western New England and a few 90's have shown up southwest across Pennsylvania. All in all, this spells instability. CAPE has reached 1500 to 2000J/kg further west this afternoon. Low pressure entering Quebec is dragging a cold front across the eastern Great Lakes. A prefrontal trough is already the focus for a solid complex of severe storms over western New York with single cell storms popping up further east. These will tend to wane in strength with the loss of daytime heating, however there is still the chance for a shower and/or some thunder later tonight around midnight to 1am.

We will see an increase in clouds Friday morning as the cold front approaches the region. The timing of the front will largely dictate the severity of storms that develop. An early passage will result in limited time for destabilization, and vice versa. We will see an increase coverage of thunderstorms toward the early afternoon, with showers and storms becoming likely over western New England by 1pm, spreading to eastern areas by 4pm.

Winds will be unidirectional west-southwest with height with about 30kts of speed shear. This will support primarily damaging wind potential, although small hail cannot be ruled out further west, closer to the mid level cold pool.

The severe threat should end over western New England by 6pm, eastern zones 9pm.

Not much out there

A couple of tropical waves, but nothing too serious.

I do not expect any of these waves to develop at this time,

I will post if something develops this season.

Rainy Week Ahead

With the exception of Wednesday, this week will be quite wet and dreary.

Right now, we have a batch of light-moderate steady rain working in our direction.

Rain Finally Tapering, Fantastic Weekend Ahead

After quite a few days of dreary conditions, the upper-level low is finally beginning to push east of the region, which will lead to improving weather. On SkyAlert HD Doppler, only a few scattered showers remain around the area.


This weekend, a strong "Bermuda high" will set up off of the Atlantic coast, pumping in the heat from the southern United States. We could reach 90 degrees on Sunday if the winds are light enough, and cloud cover doesn't build in - which is nearly a guarantee at this point. Below is a taste-of-summer! Enjoy the weekend.

Excellent Weather Thursday

Here is the very mild Thursday forecast map:

Possible Tornado in New Jersey - Approaching CT

On Doppler Radar, a clear hook echo is now visible in NE NJ. This storm cell is moving towards the state of CT, so state tuned for further updates.

Severe Thunderstorms Approaching

Within the next few hours, be prepared for torrential downpours with some rumbles of thunder. Although I don't expect any severe weather in our immediate area, a tornado warning was issued earlier for PA and now a hook echo appears to be forming just north and west of NYC.

More graphics soon.

Tonight's Forecast

Severe Weather in Tornado Alley, Moderating Temperatures

The south-central U.S. will be dealing with severe weather over the next few days, meanwhile, Bristol will see moderating temperatures over the next few days.

Strong storm out west as seen on the WRF model:
As we get into Friday, a disturbance will pass though. Expect a dreary start to the day with passing rain showers. This will likely be the warmest day of the week, however, thick clouds may linger too long for us to really soar past 60 degrees. My current prediction is that temperatures will max out between 55 and 60 degrees on Friday. Of course, the variation accounts for different elevations throughout the area.

Mild Weather, Welcome Spring!

The Shorts & Sun Special Edition Forecast
All This Spring - Coming Soon to Email Subscribers

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny with springtime warmth. Rain overnight. Highs 60-65.

SUNDAY: Times of clouds and sun. Highs 59-64.

Spring Conditions this Weekend

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High: 55

SUNDAY: Clouds with peaks of sun. Strong southwesterly flow. High: 68

Final Snowfall Forecast

Here is my final map for tonight's major nor'easter. Expect 8"-12" here in Bristol, with strong winds and blowing snow. The school forecast will be issued very soon.

Snowfall Map Update

Well, I think it's safe to say that the biggest snowstorm of the year is on tap for tonight and tomorrow. The snow will fall heavy tomorrow morning during the "commute" - that is, if there is one. In Bristol, expect about 12" of powder. This will be the same story throughout the region.

TOTAL SNOWFALL PROJECTION:

TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY:

FutureCast Has Very Heavy Snow

Here is what FutureCast, a computer model, projects for the total snow accumulations. The darkest blue area is 14"-16". However, I think that area will see more like 12" for a snow total.

FUTURECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL:

MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY:

Major Winter Storm on the Way

On Sunday, expect some passing snow showers with little or no accumulation. The main event will be in here for Sunday Night and through the day on Monday. Yes, this storm could potentially be the biggest snow producer of the season. The track will still have to be tweaked a bit on Sunday, but as of now I think many areas in Connecticut will easily surpass one foot of powder. Stay tuned to Tyler's Weather for continuing non-stop coverage through the weekend. Plus, my school forecast will be out tomorrow afternoon.

TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY:

TOTAL SNOWFALL BY MONDAY EVENING:

Wow! Quite a shift in Tonight's GFS Model Run

It now looks like the second low pressure system, that is the Monday one, will rob the Sunday storm of energy. I may have to lower the snow amounts to 0"-2" if this continues to verify tomorrow. However, do not think that we would be out of the woods if I lower the totals. Now, it appears we will be dealing with a significant winter storm in New England on Monday, with a mixture of snow and sleet on the south coasts and all snow once you head far enough north and west. Here is the scenario map from earlier:

Preliminary Sunday Snowfall Forecast

Here is my first forecast for the Sunday snow. Expect the snow to develop by midnight on Saturday/Sunday, and continue through late morning here in Bristol. Total snow accumulations will be 2"-4". The snow will be wet and heavy to clear away.

Winter Storm on Sunday

A coastal storm will bring the region heavy precipitation on Sunday. Snow? Ice? Rain? That's the forecast issue that still needs to be fine tuned. Right now, it looks like Bristol will see a moderate snowfall, which will then change to sleet. It should continue through Sunday evening.

Storm Timer:

Sunday Storm Coverage

A winter storm will impact the region on Sunday (tomorrow). Expect marginal surface temperatures to allow for a few rain showers in the morning for all locations, however, colder air will filter in as a secondary storm whips up strength out towards Cape Cod. This will deliver more precipitation to eastern Connecticut and Massachusetts, but temperatures should remain above freezing in those areas for a good chunk of the storm. They could see up to a slushy coating as the storm pulls away. In western Connecticut, colder temperatures should allow for more snow. This is where a sticky 1"-3" of accumulation should occur. The further north you go towards and into the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, more snow will accumulate to levels of about 3"-6".

Possible Mix to Rain on Thursday

Here is my preliminary forecast. A storm will bring periods of rain on Thursday to our area. The precipitation may start and end as sleet or freezing rain. This storm looks to deliver most it's snow to northern parts of New England, just in time for my vacation up there. I will try my best to write up some snowstorm reports on Thursday or Friday.

Preliminary Forecast:

Tyler's Weather Storm Tracking:

New England Winter Storm Next Week

Next week, a storm system could impact the region. Many scenarios can still play out, but one thing is for sure: either Connecticut or Northern Vermont will see snow. I will be on vacation in Northern Vermont. In between snowmobiling, I will try post updates if the heaviest snows actually occur up there. It is still way too early to tell, so please stay tuned to the main website and blog for further updates!

Weather Briefing 2/10/09

Weather Briefing 2/9/09

Total Snowfall vs. Normal Snowfall

On the graphic below, you can see the snowfall totals and the departure from average this winter. Most of these areas have similar normal totals, but as you can see, this year has brought much more snow to parts of southeastern New England as compared to the averages.

Rain in the Adirondacks?

Sky Alert HD Doppler is picking up some rain and mixed precipitation in upstate New York. It's pretty dismal to have rain in these areas in early February. This upcoming week will bring mild temperatures with spells of rain, so this is just a quick taste of what's to come!

Rainy Weather on Thursday

Precision MesoCast

Want to watch the Precision MesoCast snowfall model during storms? Now you can! Scroll to the bottom of this page to see the current model prejection.

Final School Predictions

45% Early Dismissal
35% Regular Day
20% School Cancellation

~ I must emphasize the low end of confidence on this forecast ~

There is a high changeability factor involved here. Since the snow should only be periodic in the moring, that may rule out a school cancellation. The steadier snow in the afternoon is what has me leaning towards an early dismissal. If in fact an early dismissal occurs, it may or may not be called in the morning. The second top choice is a regular day. If this occurs, be careful on the snowcovered roads as the potential is there to see 2" or more of snow accumulation.

Tuesday Snowfall Forecast

Here is the final snowfall forecast for Tuesday. Many schools in the blue area may close due to an all day, periodic snow event. Although accumulations will be light, Bristol may see some type of school interruption. These numbers will be updated later and sent out in the exclusive alert email.

55% Regular Day
30% Early Dismissal
15% No School

Forecast Discussion Update

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 00z SUN. 2/2/09

*MINOR EVENT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONSISTENCY /WESTWARD TREND/ OF THE 00Z NAM OR GFS TONIGHT BEFORE A SNOW MAP IS ISSUED.

ECMWF HAS A SNOWSTORM TRACK WITH PLOWABLE SNOW /3"+/ IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL STICK WITH ORIGINAL FORECAST FROM SATURDAY OF 2"-4". THIS WOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING OF TUESDAY.

TWFD Update

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 17z SUN. 2/1/09

*WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

12z ECMWF COMING OUT SOON. IF WE HAVE CONSISTENCY, A SNOW MAP WILL BE ISSUED BY 19Z 2/1/09.

Tyler's Weather Forecast Discussion

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 17z SUN. 2/1/09

*WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

A ROLLER COASTER SET OF MODELS HAVE BEEN REVIEWED AND NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. BASIC QPF TOTALS WERE DERIVED FROM THE 09Z SREF /WHICH CONTINUES THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IDEA/ AND FROM FUTURECAST. EARLY CALCULATIONS SHOW 4"-8" OF SNOW FOR THE SNE AREA. THINKING THIS WILL BE NEAR A .5" QPF EVENT, BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE FOR THE LOWER OR HIGHER DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK. ECMWF CONTINUES IT'S STAGNANT FAR EAST TRACK, BUT 00Z RUN HAS BAGGY ISOBARS OFF THE COAST. POSSIBLY TRIES TO DEVELOP THE SECONDARY AS SIMILARLY ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM RUNS. WILL STICK TO 06Z NAM FOR TRACK. GFS HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM RUN-TO-RUN, SO HAS BEEN SET ASIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

12Z MODEL RUN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE DELMARVA COAST. HOWEVER, 12Z GFS OP RUN BRINGS THE LOW OTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE GFS HAS BEEN SET ASIDE DUE TO ITS INCONSISTENCIES.

INTERNATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE OFF SHORE CAMP. DUE TO THEIR LOW RESOLUTION AND 24HR INTERVALS, WE CANNOT MAKE ACCURATE ASSUMPTIONS AS TO THE SECONDARY LOW.

WILL STICK TO 06Z NAM FOR TRACK AND 09Z SREF/FUTURECAST FOR THE QPF TOTALS. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MORE RUNS WILL COME IN, NOTABLY THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WATCH FOR ANY TRENDS, AND MAY ALTER FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE UPCOMING CRITICAL RUNS.

Severe Sledding Accident on Chippens Hill

A call was received around 12:30PM for a sledding accident at the Chippens Hill sand pits. Two 17-year-old parties had suffered a severe back injury. Their condition is not known at this time.

WATCH IN HIGH QUALITY!

Major Snow & Ice Storm Tomorrow

URGENT - SNOW & ICE STORM

A moderate snow will fall on the Bristol area, crippling the Wednesday morning commute. The snow may fall heavily at times during the morning hours as the storm begins to ramp up. Expect a total snow accumulation of 4"-6". The snow will then change to sleet and freezing rain by noontime. We could see around one quarter of an inch of ice accretion. Coupled with the snow already on the trees and power lines, this ice may break some limbs and cause scattered power outages. The temperature should hover between 30 and 35 degrees through the early afternoon. A change to plain rain is possible around dinner time.

80% - 100% No School
(Final Update by 6PM)

Final Snow Accumulation Map:

Powerfull Snowstorm to Pound Region

Here is the Tyler's Weather forecast for Wednesday:

BRISTOL SNOW: 6"-10"
SCHOOL? 90% No School

Hour-By-Hour Map Projection:
(Click to Animate)
Snow Totals:

Major Snowstorm Possible Wednesday

A large storm will pass by to our south on Wednesday, keeping any mixing well south of NYC. If the storm pans out as the models portray it right now, we could be talking about a foot of snow. However, this will likely change, so please stay tuned to Tyler's Weather.

Inauguration Weather

Many will be shifting focus to Washington DC tomorrow with the Inauguration.

Skies should be mostly cloudy through the day, with light winds. The high temperature will likely be right around freezing, with a noontime temperature near 30.

To the left is the experimental hourly forecast chart generated by the NWS.

Below is a summary of the weather for past Inaugurations back to 1937, courtesy of the Washington Post. Only four years featured below freezing temperatures at noon. 2009 may join that club.

Storm Recap, More Light Snow Tonight

Here is a storm recap video from today.



Currently, a coastal storm is developing down south. Although most of the moisture will miss us, some indications show that we could pick up another Coating -1" of powder tonight.

Snowstorm in Progress, Updated Totals

Here is an updated snow total forecast from Tyler's Weather:

Clipper Brings Decent Snow to Region

Here is the Tyler's Weather snowfall map. A clipper system will move eastward overnight, and a new low pressure center will develop off the tip of Long Island. This will help the precipitation to intensify for a few hours tomorrow morning, but it will also change areas such as the Cape & Islands over to rain. In Bristol, expect a total snow accumulation of 2"-4".

Snowstorm Possible Sunday into Monday

Here is a simple scenario map for the Sunday-Monday storm. This could bring 1"-3" of snow, or 6"-12" of snow...point is, time and track will vary until about Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Final Snow & School Predictions

Here are the final predictions from Tyler's Weather:

60% No School
40% Regular Day
(This is more of a perfect timing event, and not a heavy accumulation event. The snow will start around daybreak, and continue until noon time. This does not qualify under a delay, because buses would be running in the heart of the storm. Even though only 2"-4" of snow is expected, the timing is inevitably proper for a school cancellation.)

Final Snowfall Map:

Minor Snow Event Thursday

Here are the updated snow totals from Tyler's Weather. We should see some light snow in the morning on Thursday, with a potential 90-Minute Delay or even a School Cancellation. Stay tuned.

Minor Snowfall Thursday

An early dismissal is likely on Thursday, given that a weak clipper system will traverse the region. With abnormally high snow ratios, this event should put down a solid 3"-6" of sweepable fluffy powder.

First Thoughts:

Tyler's Weather Bulletins

These are the new Tyler's Weather Weather Alert System for the weekend storm.