Tyler's Weather Blog

Tropical Storm Danny

2009-08-26T13:17:00.003-04:00

This weekend is not looking great at this point. We have a new tropical system forming east of the Bahamas, and it is expected to scoot by the outer banks of NC before impacting southern New England. The exact track is not yet known, but there is high confidence on the cone track as shown below. The center of the storm, with winds likely over 50mph, could pass anywhere between southeastern CT and Cape Cod, MA. Waves will be a danger along with viscous rip currents. Flooding will be the main concern over inland areas, as upwards of 2"-4" could fall, all depending on the final track the storm takes.

Heavy Storms to the West

2009-07-24T21:08:00.001-04:00

Here is the current radar.

(c) Copyright WeatherTAP.com

Forecast Update: Precipitation Not as Intense

2009-07-23T20:36:00.001-04:00

The precipitation is falling at lower rates than originally thought, and therefore, the totals will be slightly less. Here is an updated map:

Heavy Rain Overnight Thursday, Tapering Friday

2009-07-23T14:21:00.003-04:00

A storm with tropical origins will ride just east of the area tonight, delivering gusty winds and heavy rains. The total rainfall forecast is below, and for Bristol, I expect about 2" of rain. Some roads may become flooded around Bristol by midday Friday after all the runoff has made it into area rivers and streams.

Tropical Moisture Bombards Area Friday

2009-07-22T20:05:00.001-04:00

Here is the forecast:

Stormy Skies Saturday Evening

2009-07-10T19:26:00.004-04:00

Watch out for showers and thundershowers as you head outside later on Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring rainy weather to the greater Bristol area overnight Saturday. If traveling to the north or west, watch out for potential severe weather during the day on Saturday.

Severe t'storms, hail tomorrow

2009-06-29T17:35:00.000-04:00

A strong upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes is providing a cold pool aloft with 500mb temperatures around -15C. The low is generating a 40kt mid level southwesterly jet across the northeast while a 995mb surface low produces southerly / south-southeasterly flow into southern New England. Abundant low level moisture combined with periods of sunshine tomorrow will destabilize the atmosphere with afternoon surface CAPE of 1000J/kg to 1500J/kg. This is a classic set up for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southeast of the upper low, intersecting the low level jet. In this case, the severe threat area extends across most of New York State into western and southern New England.

With the deep cold pool aloft, the primary threat with any thunderstorms will be large hail. Damaging wind gusts are also possible and depending on the extent of the easterly component on the low level winds, we could see a tornado or two develop.

Medium chance of development

2009-06-26T15:09:00.002-04:00

There is a new invest out there. This system is firing up some good convection, and I would say development of this system is likely.

Lets discuss Track and strength of this new invest.

My cone for this system is very wide, because this system hasn't developed yet, so we can't really be sure where it is going to head, but a track into the Gulf of Mexico is pretty much certain. Once this system gets into the Gulf of Mexico, I would say the steering currents are going to be very weak, and will allow this system to sit and strengthen due to the increasingly favorable conditions for development that is forecast.

I do expect this system to become Ana, and I do expect it to possibly become a hurricane, but we can definately not be sure of that.

Another update soon!

Zack Cooper

With summer comes thunderstorms

2009-06-25T17:19:00.000-04:00

Summer weather arrived today as the pesky ocean storm that was holding clouds and cold temperatures over the region has finally moved away. Low level moisture is very well established, with dew points in the 60's across the region. High temperatures have reached the low 80's over western New England and a few 90's have shown up southwest across Pennsylvania. All in all, this spells instability. CAPE has reached 1500 to 2000J/kg further west this afternoon. Low pressure entering Quebec is dragging a cold front across the eastern Great Lakes. A prefrontal trough is already the focus for a solid complex of severe storms over western New York with single cell storms popping up further east. These will tend to wane in strength with the loss of daytime heating, however there is still the chance for a shower and/or some thunder later tonight around midnight to 1am.

We will see an increase in clouds Friday morning as the cold front approaches the region. The timing of the front will largely dictate the severity of storms that develop. An early passage will result in limited time for destabilization, and vice versa. We will see an increase coverage of thunderstorms toward the early afternoon, with showers and storms becoming likely over western New England by 1pm, spreading to eastern areas by 4pm.

Winds will be unidirectional west-southwest with height with about 30kts of speed shear. This will support primarily damaging wind potential, although small hail cannot be ruled out further west, closer to the mid level cold pool.

The severe threat should end over western New England by 6pm, eastern zones 9pm.

Not much out there

2009-06-16T13:54:00.001-04:00

A couple of tropical waves, but nothing too serious.

I do not expect any of these waves to develop at this time,

I will post if something develops this season.

Rainy Week Ahead

2009-05-04T17:16:00.002-04:00

With the exception of Wednesday, this week will be quite wet and dreary.

Right now, we have a batch of light-moderate steady rain working in our direction.

Rain Finally Tapering, Fantastic Weekend Ahead

2009-04-22T20:02:00.004-04:00

After quite a few days of dreary conditions, the upper-level low is finally beginning to push east of the region, which will lead to improving weather. On SkyAlert HD Doppler, only a few scattered showers remain around the area.

This weekend, a strong "Bermuda high" will set up off of the Atlantic coast, pumping in the heat from the southern United States. We could reach 90 degrees on Sunday if the winds are light enough, and cloud cover doesn't build in - which is nearly a guarantee at this point. Below is a taste-of-summer! Enjoy the weekend.

Excellent Weather Thursday

2009-04-01T23:38:00.002-04:00

Here is the very mild Thursday forecast map:

Possible Tornado in New Jersey - Approaching CT

2009-03-29T20:06:00.001-04:00

On Doppler Radar, a clear hook echo is now visible in NE NJ. This storm cell is moving towards the state of CT, so state tuned for further updates.

Severe Thunderstorms Approaching

2009-03-29T20:00:00.000-04:00

Within the next few hours, be prepared for torrential downpours with some rumbles of thunder. Although I don't expect any severe weather in our immediate area, a tornado warning was issued earlier for PA and now a hook echo appears to be forming just north and west of NYC.

More graphics soon.

Tonight's Forecast

2009-03-26T20:23:00.000-04:00

Severe Weather in Tornado Alley, Moderating Temperatures

2009-03-24T18:59:00.003-04:00

The south-central U.S. will be dealing with severe weather over the next few days, meanwhile, Bristol will see moderating temperatures over the next few days.

Strong storm out west as seen on the WRF model:
As we get into Friday, a disturbance will pass though. Expect a dreary start to the day with passing rain showers. This will likely be the warmest day of the week, however, thick clouds may linger too long for us to really soar past 60 degrees. My current prediction is that temperatures will max out between 55 and 60 degrees on Friday. Of course, the variation accounts for different elevations throughout the area.

Mild Weather, Welcome Spring!

2009-03-06T14:39:00.003-05:00

The Shorts & Sun Special Edition Forecast
All This Spring - Coming Soon to Email Subscribers

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny with springtime warmth. Rain overnight. Highs 60-65.

SUNDAY: Times of clouds and sun. Highs 59-64.

Spring Conditions this Weekend

2009-03-04T22:10:00.002-05:00

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High: 55

SUNDAY: Clouds with peaks of sun. Strong southwesterly flow. High: 68

Final Snowfall Forecast

2009-03-01T16:44:00.001-05:00

Here is my final map for tonight's major nor'easter. Expect 8"-12" here in Bristol, with strong winds and blowing snow. The school forecast will be issued very soon.

Snowfall Map Update

2009-03-01T09:33:00.002-05:00

Well, I think it's safe to say that the biggest snowstorm of the year is on tap for tonight and tomorrow. The snow will fall heavy tomorrow morning during the "commute" - that is, if there is one. In Bristol, expect about 12" of powder. This will be the same story throughout the region.

TOTAL SNOWFALL PROJECTION:

TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY:

FutureCast Has Very Heavy Snow

2009-02-28T18:27:00.002-05:00

Here is what FutureCast, a computer model, projects for the total snow accumulations. The darkest blue area is 14"-16". However, I think that area will see more like 12" for a snow total.

FUTURECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL:

MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY:

Major Winter Storm on the Way

2009-02-28T15:42:00.003-05:00

On Sunday, expect some passing snow showers with little or no accumulation. The main event will be in here for Sunday Night and through the day on Monday. Yes, this storm could potentially be the biggest snow producer of the season. The track will still have to be tweaked a bit on Sunday, but as of now I think many areas in Connecticut will easily surpass one foot of powder. Stay tuned to Tyler's Weather for continuing non-stop coverage through the weekend. Plus, my school forecast will be out tomorrow afternoon.

TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY:

TOTAL SNOWFALL BY MONDAY EVENING:

Wow! Quite a shift in Tonight's GFS Model Run

2009-02-27T22:59:00.003-05:00

It now looks like the second low pressure system, that is the Monday one, will rob the Sunday storm of energy. I may have to lower the snow amounts to 0"-2" if this continues to verify tomorrow. However, do not think that we would be out of the woods if I lower the totals. Now, it appears we will be dealing with a significant winter storm in New England on Monday, with a mixture of snow and sleet on the south coasts and all snow once you head far enough north and west. Here is the scenario map from earlier:

Preliminary Sunday Snowfall Forecast

2009-02-27T15:42:00.003-05:00

Here is my first forecast for the Sunday snow. Expect the snow to develop by midnight on Saturday/Sunday, and continue through late morning here in Bristol. Total snow accumulations will be 2"-4". The snow will be wet and heavy to clear away.

Winter Storm on Sunday

2009-02-26T15:15:00.006-05:00

A coastal storm will bring the region heavy precipitation on Sunday. Snow? Ice? Rain? That's the forecast issue that still needs to be fine tuned. Right now, it looks like Bristol will see a moderate snowfall, which will then change to sleet. It should continue through Sunday evening.

Storm Timer:

Sunday Storm Coverage

2009-02-22T00:42:00.002-05:00

A winter storm will impact the region on Sunday (tomorrow). Expect marginal surface temperatures to allow for a few rain showers in the morning for all locations, however, colder air will filter in as a secondary storm whips up strength out towards Cape Cod. This will deliver more precipitation to eastern Connecticut and Massachusetts, but temperatures should remain above freezing in those areas for a good chunk of the storm. They could see up to a slushy coating as the storm pulls away. In western Connecticut, colder temperatures should allow for more snow. This is where a sticky 1"-3" of accumulation should occur. The further north you go towards and into the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, more snow will accumulate to levels of about 3"-6".

Possible Mix to Rain on Thursday

2009-02-14T14:34:00.004-05:00

Here is my preliminary forecast. A storm will bring periods of rain on Thursday to our area. The precipitation may start and end as sleet or freezing rain. This storm looks to deliver most it's snow to northern parts of New England, just in time for my vacation up there. I will try my best to write up some snowstorm reports on Thursday or Friday.

Preliminary Forecast:

Tyler's Weather Storm Tracking:

New England Winter Storm Next Week

2009-02-12T22:30:00.003-05:00

Next week, a storm system could impact the region. Many scenarios can still play out, but one thing is for sure: either Connecticut or Northern Vermont will see snow. I will be on vacation in Northern Vermont. In between snowmobiling, I will try post updates if the heaviest snows actually occur up there. It is still way too early to tell, so please stay tuned to the main website and blog for further updates!

Weather Briefing 2/10/09

2009-02-10T19:05:00.000-05:00

Weather Briefing 2/9/09

2009-02-09T18:56:00.002-05:00

Total Snowfall vs. Normal Snowfall

2009-02-08T10:28:00.002-05:00

On the graphic below, you can see the snowfall totals and the departure from average this winter. Most of these areas have similar normal totals, but as you can see, this year has brought much more snow to parts of southeastern New England as compared to the averages.

Rain in the Adirondacks?

2009-02-07T16:09:00.002-05:00

Sky Alert HD Doppler is picking up some rain and mixed precipitation in upstate New York. It's pretty dismal to have rain in these areas in early February. This upcoming week will bring mild temperatures with spells of rain, so this is just a quick taste of what's to come!

Rainy Weather on Thursday

2009-02-07T15:56:00.001-05:00

Precision MesoCast

2009-02-07T14:15:00.001-05:00

Want to watch the Precision MesoCast snowfall model during storms? Now you can! Scroll to the bottom of this page to see the current model prejection.

Final School Predictions

2009-02-02T19:43:00.001-05:00

45% Early Dismissal
35% Regular Day
20% School Cancellation

~ I must emphasize the low end of confidence on this forecast ~

There is a high changeability factor involved here. Since the snow should only be periodic in the moring, that may rule out a school cancellation. The steadier snow in the afternoon is what has me leaning towards an early dismissal. If in fact an early dismissal occurs, it may or may not be called in the morning. The second top choice is a regular day. If this occurs, be careful on the snowcovered roads as the potential is there to see 2" or more of snow accumulation.

Tuesday Snowfall Forecast

2009-02-02T16:15:00.003-05:00

Here is the final snowfall forecast for Tuesday. Many schools in the blue area may close due to an all day, periodic snow event. Although accumulations will be light, Bristol may see some type of school interruption. These numbers will be updated later and sent out in the exclusive alert email.

55% Regular Day
30% Early Dismissal
15% No School

Forecast Discussion Update

2009-02-01T19:46:00.002-05:00

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 00z SUN. 2/2/09

*MINOR EVENT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONSISTENCY /WESTWARD TREND/ OF THE 00Z NAM OR GFS TONIGHT BEFORE A SNOW MAP IS ISSUED.

ECMWF HAS A SNOWSTORM TRACK WITH PLOWABLE SNOW /3"+/ IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL STICK WITH ORIGINAL FORECAST FROM SATURDAY OF 2"-4". THIS WOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING OF TUESDAY.

TWFD Update

2009-02-01T13:43:00.002-05:00

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 17z SUN. 2/1/09

*WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

12z ECMWF COMING OUT SOON. IF WE HAVE CONSISTENCY, A SNOW MAP WILL BE ISSUED BY 19Z 2/1/09.

Tyler's Weather Forecast Discussion

2009-02-01T12:56:00.003-05:00

LATEST WEATHER STATEMENT
TWFD SOUTHERN NEW ENG.
ISSUED 17z SUN. 2/1/09

*WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT*

A ROLLER COASTER SET OF MODELS HAVE BEEN REVIEWED AND NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. BASIC QPF TOTALS WERE DERIVED FROM THE 09Z SREF /WHICH CONTINUES THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IDEA/ AND FROM FUTURECAST. EARLY CALCULATIONS SHOW 4"-8" OF SNOW FOR THE SNE AREA. THINKING THIS WILL BE NEAR A .5" QPF EVENT, BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE FOR THE LOWER OR HIGHER DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK. ECMWF CONTINUES IT'S STAGNANT FAR EAST TRACK, BUT 00Z RUN HAS BAGGY ISOBARS OFF THE COAST. POSSIBLY TRIES TO DEVELOP THE SECONDARY AS SIMILARLY ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM RUNS. WILL STICK TO 06Z NAM FOR TRACK. GFS HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM RUN-TO-RUN, SO HAS BEEN SET ASIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

12Z MODEL RUN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE DELMARVA COAST. HOWEVER, 12Z GFS OP RUN BRINGS THE LOW OTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE GFS HAS BEEN SET ASIDE DUE TO ITS INCONSISTENCIES.

INTERNATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE OFF SHORE CAMP. DUE TO THEIR LOW RESOLUTION AND 24HR INTERVALS, WE CANNOT MAKE ACCURATE ASSUMPTIONS AS TO THE SECONDARY LOW.

WILL STICK TO 06Z NAM FOR TRACK AND 09Z SREF/FUTURECAST FOR THE QPF TOTALS. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MORE RUNS WILL COME IN, NOTABLY THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WATCH FOR ANY TRENDS, AND MAY ALTER FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE UPCOMING CRITICAL RUNS.

Severe Sledding Accident on Chippens Hill

2009-01-28T13:38:00.008-05:00

A call was received around 12:30PM for a sledding accident at the Chippens Hill sand pits. Two 17-year-old parties had suffered a severe back injury. Their condition is not known at this time.

WATCH IN HIGH QUALITY!

Major Snow & Ice Storm Tomorrow

2009-01-27T15:19:00.002-05:00

URGENT - SNOW & ICE STORM

A moderate snow will fall on the Bristol area, crippling the Wednesday morning commute. The snow may fall heavily at times during the morning hours as the storm begins to ramp up. Expect a total snow accumulation of 4"-6". The snow will then change to sleet and freezing rain by noontime. We could see around one quarter of an inch of ice accretion. Coupled with the snow already on the trees and power lines, this ice may break some limbs and cause scattered power outages. The temperature should hover between 30 and 35 degrees through the early afternoon. A change to plain rain is possible around dinner time.

80% - 100% No School
(Final Update by 6PM)

Final Snow Accumulation Map:

Powerfull Snowstorm to Pound Region

2009-01-26T17:49:00.005-05:00

Here is the Tyler's Weather forecast for Wednesday:

BRISTOL SNOW: 6"-10"
SCHOOL? 90% No School

Hour-By-Hour Map Projection:
(Click to Animate)
Snow Totals:

Major Snowstorm Possible Wednesday

2009-01-25T12:48:00.002-05:00

A large storm will pass by to our south on Wednesday, keeping any mixing well south of NYC. If the storm pans out as the models portray it right now, we could be talking about a foot of snow. However, this will likely change, so please stay tuned to Tyler's Weather.

Inauguration Weather

2009-01-19T16:47:00.000-05:00

Many will be shifting focus to Washington DC tomorrow with the Inauguration.

Skies should be mostly cloudy through the day, with light winds. The high temperature will likely be right around freezing, with a noontime temperature near 30.

To the left is the experimental hourly forecast chart generated by the NWS.

Below is a summary of the weather for past Inaugurations back to 1937, courtesy of the Washington Post. Only four years featured below freezing temperatures at noon. 2009 may join that club.

Storm Recap, More Light Snow Tonight

2009-01-18T17:10:00.001-05:00

Here is a storm recap video from today.

Currently, a coastal storm is developing down south. Although most of the moisture will miss us, some indications show that we could pick up another Coating -1" of powder tonight.

Snowstorm in Progress, Updated Totals

2009-01-18T08:39:00.001-05:00

Here is an updated snow total forecast from Tyler's Weather:

Clipper Brings Decent Snow to Region

2009-01-17T12:47:00.002-05:00

Here is the Tyler's Weather snowfall map. A clipper system will move eastward overnight, and a new low pressure center will develop off the tip of Long Island. This will help the precipitation to intensify for a few hours tomorrow morning, but it will also change areas such as the Cape & Islands over to rain. In Bristol, expect a total snow accumulation of 2"-4".

Snowstorm Possible Sunday into Monday

2009-01-15T17:22:00.002-05:00

Here is a simple scenario map for the Sunday-Monday storm. This could bring 1"-3" of snow, or 6"-12" of snow...point is, time and track will vary until about Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Final Snow & School Predictions

2009-01-14T20:40:00.002-05:00

Here are the final predictions from Tyler's Weather:

60% No School
40% Regular Day
(This is more of a perfect timing event, and not a heavy accumulation event. The snow will start around daybreak, and continue until noon time. This does not qualify under a delay, because buses would be running in the heart of the storm. Even though only 2"-4" of snow is expected, the timing is inevitably proper for a school cancellation.)

Final Snowfall Map:

Minor Snow Event Thursday

2009-01-13T18:10:00.001-05:00

Here are the updated snow totals from Tyler's Weather. We should see some light snow in the morning on Thursday, with a potential 90-Minute Delay or even a School Cancellation. Stay tuned.

Minor Snowfall Thursday

2009-01-12T18:52:00.002-05:00

An early dismissal is likely on Thursday, given that a weak clipper system will traverse the region. With abnormally high snow ratios, this event should put down a solid 3"-6" of sweepable fluffy powder.

First Thoughts:

Tyler's Weather Bulletins

2009-01-10T21:34:00.005-05:00

These are the new Tyler's Weather Weather Alert System for the weekend storm.

Winter Storm Warnings & Final Forecast

2009-01-10T10:13:00.003-05:00

A WINTER STORM WARNING has been posted for the entire State of Connecticut.

Here is the final thinking of Tyler's Weather.com. If you notice, I have been very consistent with this storm, and did not move the totals very much.

Big Snowstorm This Weekend

2009-01-09T15:20:00.002-05:00

Tyler's Weather.com has released a map with projected final accumulations. Winter Storm Warnings are already posted.

Updated Storm Details

2009-01-05T19:03:00.003-05:00

Tyler's Weather.com has released an updated Precision Local Area Forecast:

65%..............Cancellation
35%........90-Minute Delay

Winter Storm Watch Issued

2009-01-05T19:00:00.002-05:00

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
333 PM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE NEAR THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ALOFT CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

FREEZING RAIN MAY BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-84 AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION ACROSS A PORTION OF THIS REGION.

IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHAT THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE FROM THIS STORM. IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
COAST...MORE OF AN ICE EVENT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME SNOW AT THE
ONSET. IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH NOT AS MUCH ICE. REGARDLESS...THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR MAY BE QUITE MESSY SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

Mid-Week Wintry Mess

2009-01-04T13:59:00.004-05:00

Here are some early estimates from Tyler's Weather:

Basic Storm Setup

General Precipitation Types

Precision Local Area Forecast

Merry Christmas from Tyler's Weather!

2008-12-27T15:34:00.001-05:00

Have a great Christmas Day & Christmas Vacation!

Heavy Snow Sunday - Map Issued Saturday

2008-12-21T10:21:00.001-05:00

Here is the forecast:

*Higher Amounts Possible*

No School Today: Final Forecast

2008-12-19T05:46:00.001-05:00

Here are the final forecast maps:

Headlines

Total Accumulations

Final Snowfall Accumulations

2008-12-18T20:29:00.002-05:00

Here is the official Tyler's Weather Forecast:

TOTAL SNOWFALL:

CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS:

UPDATE: Winter Storm Watches Issued

2008-12-17T18:37:00.003-05:00

The regional National Weather Service offices have already issued Winter Storm Watches for southern New England. This means that the potential is there for a minimum of 6" of snow.

NWS Watches:

Tyler's Weather.com FutureCast Model:
Total Snowfall

Major Snowstorm Friday

2008-12-17T15:05:00.005-05:00

A Major Snowstorm is headed for our region. Even though the coastline may have some sleet mix in from time to time, substantial snow accumulations can still be expected in northern areas.

Below are the first thoughts:
Heaviest Snow Bands:

Busy Time in the Weather

2008-12-16T18:24:00.006-05:00

A storm will deliver light snow accumulations to the Bristol area tonight. Expect the snow to change over to sleet and/or freezing rain around 7AM. Some leftover rain showers will be the main concern for the remainder of the morning.

SNOWFALL FORECAST:

Another substantial snowstorm will impact the region on Friday. Many areas could receive over 6" of new snow by Saturday morning. An updated post will be written tomorrow about that storm's potential.

Wintry Mess Wednesday

2008-12-14T23:11:00.001-05:00

A storm system will bring some wintry conditions to our area on Wednesday. Stay tuned as this forecast will be modified as the week progesses:

Major Nor'easter to Strike New England

2008-12-09T18:48:00.003-05:00

A major winter storm is headed for New England. With original roots in the Gulf of Mexico, this storm will be dripping full with moisture. However, not everyone will recieve the same type of precipitation. The map below illustrates the current Tyler's Weather.com forecast.

Sections of inland western and inland eastern Connecticut can expect an all-out ice storm. The precipitation will likely begin in the late morning on Thursday as rain. A quick change over to sleet and freezing rain will occur in these portions of the state. However, the shoreline and Hartford valley will remain all rain. As the storm dwindles to an end in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, everybody can expect some snow. This will not amount to much of any accumulation.

In Bristol, expect over .5 inches of ice accretion. This is significant and precautions should be taken. A slight coating of snow is possible as the storm exits early Friday morning.

There is a moderate chance of No School on Thursday.

First Ski Area to Open in the East!

2008-11-11T18:56:00.001-05:00

Woodbury Ski Area

Woodbury, Connecticut

Partly Obama, with a 50% chance of McCain

2008-11-02T11:41:00.001-05:00

Here's your Election Day forecast. Looks dry across much of the nation. Still, two storm systems will have to be watched closely. The first in the west will cause widespread clouds and showers across Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, North Dakota, and portions of northern California, Nevada, and Utah. The middle of the nation will enjoy sunny skies east into the Ohio Valley as high pressure remains in control. The second storm system could actually become a hybrid tropical cyclone. This storm will affect portions of eastern North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Back home in the northeast, skies will average partly to mostly cloudy as the storm to the south skirts under the region. There could be some morning fog across the valleys of New England as well.

Weekend Looks Fantastic for Fall

2008-10-31T22:45:00.001-04:00

This Weekend's Forecast:

Snow in the CT Hills, Snowstorm for Northern New York

2008-10-27T17:10:00.004-04:00

It's not even Halloween. The elections are still to come.

...SNOW?

On Tuesday, expect rain showers on/off through out the day. As a large storm winds up to our SE and East during the day, a cold front will pass through the region. Temperatures will become even chillier than previous days. With that, the result is snow. Yes. Be prepared for some rain/snow showers throughout the evening. These rain/snow showers will continue through Wednesday. Don't get too mad about this early showing of snow, as portions of northern New York state will easily pick up a foot!
Forecast Graphic:
GFS Snow Output Graphic:

Nothing much happening

2008-10-18T18:28:00.000-04:00

I havent posted in over a month so i figured i would post a quick update on winter weather and the tropics, we have the tropical storm well out in the Atlantic dying as we speak.. So who cares? Not much going on in the nation with winter weather really, so check back during a major snow event or tropical system.

-zackc

Tropical Storm Nana

2008-10-12T16:55:00.002-04:00

TROPICAL STORM NANA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST OR ABOUT 925 MILES...1485 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

NANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...16.4 N...37.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

A cold and stormy November possible

2008-10-10T16:32:00.000-04:00

Taking a look at the September 500mb height anomalies, three distinct regions are evident.

I created a time series for the three areas, and sorted the years to find a best match for each one. Using the each time series, I also made a custom series (Area B + Area C - Area A). I took the top 20 (minus 2008 which was first as to be expected) for possible analogs and sorted through them, eliminating El Nino and +AAM years as well as years where the custom data was skewed due to a strong anomaly in only one of the areas but not the rest. The resulting years (in chronological order) were 1949, 1956, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2007.

As you can see, the average of the list of analogs returns a fairly close match to the September 2008 pattern.

Because features in the atmosphere are interconnected to some degree, using the analogs presented, we can get a general idea for the future. Roll forward analogs generally work best in the 25+ day range. This is because before then there is a transitional period during which the signals from each analog are widely spread and average to a weak, blurry signal.

In this case, the October analog average does not have high magnitude anomalies, however November features an node in the analogs. There is a strong signal at this time for +PNA ridging with a trough over the eastern US. In fact 11 of the 12 analogs show below normal heights in the east with the only exception being 1999 during which the mean ridge axis was further east.

The MJO should be into octant 5 of phase space by November 15 to 18, during which time a negative NAO develops. At this point in time, the possibility of a measurable snowfall between the 18th and the 25th is looking good.

Early snow possible!!!!

2008-10-05T22:45:00.002-04:00

Nothing in the tropics

2008-09-29T20:08:00.001-04:00

Yeah, yeah, we have Subtropical Storm Laura. Boring.

Check back during the next REAL tropical system.

-Mitch

Potential Tropical Cyclone

2008-09-23T15:04:00.002-04:00

A system is developing off of Hispaniola, which may eventually impact the East coast. More updates to follow as this storm strengthens. Current status is a Tropical "Invest."

November 1" snowfall risk

2008-09-15T19:25:00.004-04:00

My primary forecasting knowledge is in Winter Weather, I have studied it for eight years, tropics come in second with 4 years experience, I just thought I would share my forecast with you for a November 1" snowfall risk, From looking at the patterns and some long range models, I think there will be a weak system that is very large crossing Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri bringing 1 to 2 inch snowfall to those areas. I think there may be even some Ice or snow flurries as far South as El Dorado Arkansas. I will keep you updated on this possible snow event... as well as try to pinpoint a time period getting smaller every week.

Zack

Northeast T'storm threat Tuesday

2008-09-08T10:02:00.002-04:00

A cold front will approach the region tomorrow with overspreading clouds and a chance of showers. Colder air aloft coming in behind Hanna will allow some conditional instability to develop (around 500 to 1000 J/kg) despite a lack of solar heating. In addition, a mid level jet of 40 to 60kts will create a significant threat for damaging winds. The possibility exists for a squall line formation to sweep through tomorrow afternoon around 2 in western New England into eastern PA, reaching eastern New England by 6. PWATs around 1.5" to 1.8" will allow some heavy downpours to occur, and any areas that received flooding from Hanna may have to deal with some renewed problems. SPC day 2 outlooks puts the region in a 30% risk for severe weather which supports my confidence in an active weather day tomorrow.

Hurricane Ike to Strike United States

2008-09-07T17:24:00.004-04:00

Although many days away, Hurricane Ike will likely strike anywhere from Texas to Louisiana later this week. He is currently a very strong storm, nearing Cuba. Updates will follow throughout this week, but for now, here is a preliminary forecast with satellite views from Early Warning Doppler HD:

(Click for Animation)
Major Hurricane Ike TrakPath:

Water Vapor Satellite:
Enhanced Infrared Satellite:

Severe Potential-9/19 Slight Risk

2008-09-07T10:48:00.003-04:00

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under A "Slight" Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Here is what they are saying:
...THE NORTHEAST SWWD ACROSS THE TN/MID MS VALLEYS... A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. WHILE AREAS OF GREATEST THREAT ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM DUE TO A ROUGHLY 6 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL ADVANCE...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM WV/VA NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HERE...STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...COMBINING WITH GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
Credit:www.spc.noaa.gov
Stay Tuned, Updates will be provided as conditions warrant.

Hanna Pounding Connecticut

2008-09-06T21:27:00.002-04:00

Hello folks, the rain has reached is maximum intensity as I write, 9:30PM. A total of 2.64" has fallen so far with a current rain rate of about .61" per hour. I expect at least one more inch to fall. By tomorrow morning, some flooded roads can be expected along with flooded basements. Here is the latest radar, showing complete precipitation coverage - statewide!

Hurricane Ike graphic

2008-09-06T11:18:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Ike

2008-09-05T20:00:00.002-04:00

Ike is looking very threatening. It could be like Anrew.
Hannah an Josephine outlooks coming soon.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA TO HIT CONNECTICUT

2008-09-05T16:18:00.003-04:00

Multiple storm warnings have been posted. Heavy rain from the remnants of Gustav are set to begin in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. However, don't think you're off the hook when the rain stops midday Saturday. Tropical Storm Hanna will be lurking on our back door. Pounding winds and tropical rains will swipe through Bristol overnight.

Current Watches/Warnings:Three-Day FastCast:
Expected Rainfall:

Hurricane Ike update

2008-09-04T22:16:00.002-04:00

As you have seen from my graphics, Ike could be very similar to Andrew and could be a Cat 5 when it makes landfall. This is a very dangerous situation an all people along the East Coast and the Gulf Coast should keep a very close eye on this system, as it could be very similar to Andrew, Or it could be very different than Andrew, and make a landfall somewhere along the East Coast!

Zack

Three Active Tropical Cyclones

2008-09-03T21:52:00.004-04:00

Many tropical systems are brewing in the Atlantic. I expect Hanna to organize and hit the Carolinas as a Category 1 storm. Major Hurricane Ike, already packing winds of 100MPH+ in the Atlantic, may entire the Gulf of Mexico by the latter half of this week. Josephine will be no threat to the U.S. mainland.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA:
MAJOR HURRICANE IKE:
OVERALL VIEW OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN:

Ike a category 3 major hurricane!

2008-09-03T20:10:00.001-04:00

The NHC just issued a special advisory at 8pm to account for the rapid intensification. Ike is now a 100kt category 3 major hurricane. Continued strengthening is likely and Ike could be a dangerous category 4 storm by tomorrow.

Ike strengthening quickly

2008-09-03T19:49:00.001-04:00

Not yet sure about rapid intensification (RI), however after being declared a hurricane in the 5pm advisory, Ike's satellite presentation continues to improve. Dvorak T#s are coming in around 6! That would be major hurricane status. Unless the structure continues to improve like this, I doubt the NHC goes with a change of that magnitude, but a significant upgrade is still likely and I am very confident that Ike is at least a category two right now. The current satellite presentation is taking on a somewhat annular look, with a more "buzz-saw" appearance versus feeder bands. In addition to strengthening, I think Ike will begin to increase in size as well over the next few days. Right now, I am very confident in Ike becoming a major hurricane, and category 4 strength is not out of the question either. The strength of the ridge to the north still looks sufficient to bring Ike to the Bahamas by day 4 or 5. Where it goes from there is a little uncertain so the southeast US coastline needs to monitor this storm very closely.

A look at the tropics

2008-09-03T13:47:00.000-04:00

Ok.. tropics very hot right now... and we may see another depression form within 1 to 3 days,, Phew!

Hannah: Hannah is weakening steadily now, Just like Gustav did once it made it into the GOM. The forecast for Gustav called for it to strengthen, but it never did. I think the same may be happening with Hannah, as it is called to become a hurricane, but is weakening. I still do expect a 70 mph to 90 mph storm at landfall. Flooding will be a concern.

Ike: I think Ike will become a Cat 5 hurricane before all said and done, and will be a threat to the Gulf Coast. I think this is now going to go into steady intensification for the next 3 days, and then rapid to explosive strengthening once in the GOM. As for landfall, at this time I think it will go through the Florida Straits. But I think extreme South Florida may see a Landfall as well. Folks, this system reminds me of Hurricane Andrew, and an Andrew like path is possible, as well as intensity. At this time, I think anywhere from Northern Mexico to the Florida panhandle along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on this, as well as Cuba and South Florida.

Josephine: Josephine is a threat to Bermuda. I expect this system to remain a tropical storm over the next 3 to 7 days. There is a chance that this system could be very similar to Bertha, and it does remind me of Bertha. The NHC track for Bertha called for it to stay a TS, But it became a Cat 3 hurricane extremely quickly. So Bermuda as well as the East Coast should keep a close eye on this systems. I do think that it will stay away from the East Coast.. however they should still keep tabs on these systems.

Zack

Tropical Action

2008-09-01T12:55:00.001-04:00

Gustav made landfall earlier today, and now all eyes turn to Hanna, TD 9 (Ike), and new developments off the African coast. It's peak season folks!

Gustav a threat to LA

2008-08-29T20:23:00.001-04:00

Hello everyone! Sorry I have not posted here in a while. Ok here is my update on Gustav, Hannah and other tropical tidbits out there!

Gustav: Now Hurricane Gustav is moving NW and is threatening the Cayman Islands, and will be threatening Cuba Tomorrow! Then a GOM movement is expected and I am very worried about intensity! I think this system will become a Cat 3 very easy, and maybe even become cat 4 or 5. As for the track: I expect Gustav to stay on a NW track for a while. I then expect this system to hit the GOM and explode. I expect this system to make landfall in central LA and then continue moving WNW to NW.

Hannah: I expect Hannah to continue to slowly strengthen and move WNW to NW. Then I expect a ridge to block it South and Send it back into South Florida or just South of Florida and maybe into the GOM. Ok, I will point this out as well, although I know you dont want to hear it. This system COULD become a major hurricane IF it makes it into the GOM.

97L: 97L is on its way to becoming a depression and will most likely become our third cyclone within the next 2 to three days. I expect a W to WNW movement for the next few days!

Zack

Hurricane Gustav to hit as Category 3 - 4 storm

2008-08-29T16:26:00.004-04:00

~ Gustav is now a Category 1 Hurricane ~

The maps below illustrate the potential destruction that is to come. New Orleans residents are already beginning to evacuate. I expect this storm may reach Category 5 intensity somewhere in the wide-open gulf, but it WILL weaken before landfall. I expect it to hit the coast 75 - 200 miles west of New Orleans. Please stay tuned to the Tyler's Weather.com Blog.

TrakPath:
Close-Up Landfall:Potential Effects:Potential Effects:

Gustav extremely dangerous! Cat. 4-5 likely

2008-08-28T19:26:00.005-04:00

Hi everyone! First, about the maps, I didn't use the HD ones because none of them really showed the whole area of my forecast. So, without further ado, here's the outlook for Gustav. I will have an update on Hanna tomorrow.

"Tropical Stormicane" Gustav is south of Jamaica and moving WSW. It probably was a hurricane and may still be, because of the center relocation to the south so it somehow missed hitting Jamaica directly. That being said, Gustav is over a bathtub of warm water and very low shear. It is expected to turn to the WNW and strengthen as it moves through the Yucatan Channel. My forecast calls for a more pronounced turn to the north due to the weakness in the ridge to the north, plus the steering current forecasts. The models are a little farther west.So here is the forecast for Gustav:

Hurricane Gustav - Potential Category 5 Gulf Coast Hit

2008-08-26T16:32:00.005-04:00

Attention all blog readers:

Hurricane Gustav is rapidly growing in size and strength over the open waters near South Cuba. It will likely become a Major Hurricane; the first of the season, and may hit the Gulf Coast. New Orleans, Louisiana should keep a vivid eye on this beast. A high pressure system off of Florida will prevent Gustav from veering eastward - as originally predicted by some meteorologists. Below are some HD Graphics for your visual enjoyment:

TrakPath:
Hurricane Intensity Descriptions:

Severe Weather Season Completed

2008-08-24T15:57:00.002-04:00

Based on latest forecasts, There are no scheduled Severe Thunderstorms for the area. I think we are done for Severe Weather until next year. With that, I Am going to switch to Regular Forecasting for now until I hear further from Chief Meteorologist Tyler with my assignment. Stay Tuned For Further Forecasts with Our Fall Forecast and Winter Forecast!
Until Next Time,

-Zach

Fay leaving, 94L a major threat, 95L something to watch, plus a 2-week forecast

2008-08-24T09:40:00.005-04:00

So I haven't done a post in awhile. Well, I've been just about gone for a week for personal reasons. So I will continue to update daily or every 2 days. Moving on, however, here are my forecasts.

Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is moving inland and will continue to weaken, bringing lots of rain to the Southeast. Additional development is not expected.

94L: This is the one we need to watch. It is definitely improving on satellite this morning, with some nice outflow and some spinning. The TAFB T# is 1.5, good enough for a minimal TD. Shear is very low, SSTs are like a bathtub with lots of TCHP in the area, and the air is very moist because of a weaker tropical wave in front of 94L. That being said, my forecast calls for some nice strengthening over the next few days due to these favorable conditions. The only thing that might impede intensification is some land to the north, if it even makes it that far north. So here is my forecast map.

95L: Invest 95L is slowly developing and moving WNW. I don't expect much from this, maybe a TS. The HWRF and CMC models are too bullish on the intensity IMO. But if some models are right, the East Coast might need to watch out down the road.

Other tropical news: Most models are predicting a new tropical wave to move off the coast sometime tomorrow or Tuesday. I expect this to become a TS or hurricane as it moves WNW to NW.

2-week tropical forecast: The MJO is upon us, with low shear and below-average SAL. I predict 94L and the future African wave to form, as well as one more named storm during the next two weeks. At least 2 of these will become hurricanes.

-Mitch

92L a major threat to the Southeast Coast, plus 93L and future 94L analysis

2008-08-14T15:57:00.004-04:00

Hello everyone! Sorry I haven't written in a long time, I've been too busy with my high school sports. But putting that aside, I will give an analysis on 92L and the rest of the tropics.

92L: A recon plane is currently in 92L, looking for a closed circulation, and they're not finding one. So Fay probably will not be declared at 5 pm today. But it will most likely be declared in the next day. But right now, 92L is a vigorous tropical wave moving west with a nice mid-level circulation, which is coming down to the surface. Wind shear is very low, 5-15 knots, over the disturbance. The ocean heat potential is very high, meaning rapid intensification is not out of the question in the future.

Now for my track. I believe 92L will become a tropical storm very soon, maybe as soon as 11 pm tonight. I expect a slow intensification until 3 days from now. Then, BOOM! A period of steady intensification starts as future Fay starts to turn northwest, then northward. The forecast is very uncertain after the ending period of my track forecast.

93L: Disturbance 93L is weak and will move westward over the next few days. Gradual development is possible.

Future 94L: A tropical wave has maintained lots of convection since exiting Africa. Models are showing a possible U.S. hit, so we better watch this as it has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend.

-Mitch

Tropical Update

2008-08-12T21:10:00.002-04:00

Invest 92: This is looking pretty ragged at the moment. I do expect this system to become a depression by the 11 advisory however, and soon, this thing will rapidly intensify, as a major mjo pulse is soon to be over the Atlantic and 92L. As for track and intensity, I expect this system to track just N of the Leeward Islands, and into the Bahamas. As for intensity, I expect to see a cat 1 hurricane approaching Florida in 120 hours. Some models like GFDL predict a cat 4, I think this is way overdone.

Invest 93; 93 has changed little in organization the past 24 hours, and is looking pretty ragged, not until the major mjo pulse, will this become a depression. As for the track and intensity, I expect this system to remain a fish storm curving out to sea, with only Bermuda threatened. As for intensity, I think This system will be a cat 1 hurricane 120 hours out.

Hurricane Forecaster Zack

2008 Little League World Series

2008-08-12T18:09:00.004-04:00

I will be traveling to Williamsport, PA later this week for the first game of the New England and Mid-Atlantic teams in the Little League World Series. These teams won the regional tournament here in Bristol, and I would like to watch them play at the world level. Here are the competitors and current standings: